The EU’s intergovernmental conference with Montenegro last week was described as a historic moment in its accession path, after it had met the interim benchmarks for two crucial acquis chapters. But the nation has still a long way to go in the reform process before it can join the EU.
The conference took place on 26 June in Brussels and was partly overshadowed by the first intergovernmental conference on a ministerial level with Ukraine on the previous day. But other candidate countries can learn some lessons from Montenegro, a candidate country since 2010, about what it takes to move forward towards EU membership.
At the conference, the EU confirmed that Montenegro has complied with the interim benchmarks for Chapter 23 (Judiciary and(Fundamental Rights) and Chapter 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security). The EU decided therefore to issue closing benchmarks for these two chapters. By this, Montenegro continues now to the next phase in the accession process which will allow it to close other chapters.
“Fundamental reforms and the rule of law are at the heart of EU accession,” said Hadja Lahbib, the Belgian Minister for Foreign Affairs. “The EU welcomes Montenegro's compliance with the interim benchmarks for these chapters. It is now important to continue with the implementation and achieve concrete results. This will be crucial for Montenegro's further path towards EU membership.”
While Hadja Lahbib was cautious in her statement, the Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, was more upbeat. In his press remarks after the intergovernmental conference, he said that the EU now will open the final phase of its negotiations with Montenegro. “This is the final phase of accession negotiations, meaning that accession is imminent.”
He added that the Commission will do everything to close chapters in the coming months. A Commission spokesperson explained that the Commission and Montenegro are working together to ensure that the momentum is maintained and to identify a set of technical chapters that can be closed in the short- and medium-term.
European Council President Charles Michel sounded also optimistic after meeting the president of Montenegro, Jakov Milatović, on Tuesday (2 July). In a press statement, he described the conference as a landmark conference and Montenegro as a frontrunner in the accession process which might “join the EU as the next member state” if it keeps up the positive reform momentum.
New president in Montenegro
Credit for the reform momentum should probably be given to the young Montenegrin president Milatović (37). An economist by profession, he defeated the incumbent president Milo Đukanović in the presidential elections last year, winning almost 60 % of the vote. Milatović was running on a pro-EU and anti-corruption programme against Đukanović who had ruled the country for 30 years.
Accession negotiations with Montenegro started in June 2012 and the interim benchmarks for chapters 23 and 24 were issued the following year but they were not met during Đukanović’s long rule. During the period, Montenegro had opened all 33 acquis chapters but until now only closed one of them. In principle they can be closed now if progress has been made in them.
However, chapters 23 and 24 will not be closed easily judging by the demanding closing benchmarks and can only be provisionally closed after they have been met. Montenegro accepted in 2020 the revised enlargement strategy which provides for an even stronger focus on the fundamental reforms in the accession negotiations.
These two chapters are included in the fundamentals’ cluster which will be closed last in the negotiations. The cluster includes Judiciary and fundamental rights (chapter 23), Justice, Freedom and Security (chapter 24), Economic criteria, Functioning of democratic institutions, Public administration reform, Public procurement (chapter 5), Statistics (chapter 18) and Financial control/external audit (chapter 32).
At the conference, the EU called on Montenegro to address key issues as regards the functioning of democratic institutions and public administration reforms in a structured and strategic way including as appropriate through action plans. Public administration reform is not a chapter in its own right, as was proposed after the backsliding of new member states, but as part of the fundamentals’ cluster its importance cannot be underestimated.
Accession date difficult to predict
"The benchmark process of chapters 23 and 24 is highly sensitive,” a Western Balkans expert told The Brussels Times on the condition of anonymity. “The road from opening to interim and closing benchmarks is full of rocks and potholes, and sometimes you arrive at a bridge only to see it has been destroyed.”
“The fact that all decisions on the fulfilment of benchmarks are subject to unanimity amongst member states means that there can be hundreds of locks on the door to the EU. It’s a long and painful process, and one single member state is enough to block progress in the accession process. The case of Montenegro, however, showcases that it’s possible to move on.”
Why did it take to so many years to reach the phase of concluding benchmarks for chapters 23 and 24? “We cannot determine exactly why it took so long time,” he replied.
“But there are several factors: frequent changes of government, internal quarrels about the role and independence of the Montenegrin Orthodox Church, and the lack of political will to implement reforms, e.g. in the fields of the fight against organised crime and the establishment of an efficient and independent judiciary with a solid track record of investigations, prosecutions, and convictions.”
How many years will it likely take for Montenegro to meet the concluding benchmarks? “We cannot possibly predict that. If there are no member states who would have reservations for domestic reasons and if the Montenegrin government was fully committed to move fast on legislation and implementation, it could be a matter of two years. If not, it might take many years.”
It also matters if a single candidate country really can join the EU on its own merits. Most countries in the Western Balkans have bilateral issues with their neighbors. “To avoid this, they would have to join in groups, e.g. Montenegro and Serbia, North Macedonia and Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Kosovo, four or all six of them together, or at least two of them at the same time.”
It would also depend on how fast Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia are able to progress and the potential issue of UK wanting to re-enter the EU, he added. “Accession by 2030 isn’t very likely, as that would mean finishing accession negotiations in the course of 2028 to allow sufficient time for the ratification of the accession treaties by all member states.”
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
