Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will disconnect from the Russian power grid in February next year and synchronise with the continental European network. It is yet another example of how energy security fears have affected policy.
The Baltic states currently operate a grid network that is coupled to the Russian and Belarusian systems. It is a relic of the Soviet Union that has rapidly turned from annoying hangover to existential threat.
Currently, the authorities in Moscow manage the grid and make sure that its frequency does not fluctuate. Given Russia’s clear demonstration over the last two years that it is willing to use energy as a hybrid weapon, it simply an untenable situation to be in.
That is why last year, the grid operators of the three Baltic countries agreed to accelerate their decoupling plans. Instead of completing the process in summer 2025, the work should be finished in February.
This week, those operators confirmed that on 8 February 2025, the Baltic network will decouple from the Russian grid and then operate in so-called island mode for 24 hours. The day after, it will be synchronised with the continental European network.
Although Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine moved up the timeline significantly it was not the initial trigger for the operation. Political leaders said back in the 2000s that integration with the European grid would be a long-term goal.
In 2017, Brussels and the three countries agreed to push on with works and a political declaration finalising the plans was signed in 2019. That was the beginning of the real concerted effort to cut ties with Russia.
Even though Russia had never disrupted power flows or threatened to do so, Baltic leaders were wise enough to realise that they could not be beholden to Moscow for electricity supply.
The work needed to pull off this project has been a complex affair. New facilities that will allow the three countries to stabilise the grid themselves, plus new transmission lines have needed to be built.
Estonia prepared for the disconnection by building an undersea cable linking its grid to Finland, while Lithuania did the same with Sweden. It is currently finalising works on two connections with Poland, which will be crucial for the project’s success.
The European Union has provided more than a billion euros in funding for the desynchronisation project, as it has been given priority status.
It is unclear how Russia will react to its former colonies finally cutting ties. It will mean that the exclave of Kaliningrad will be fully isolated from Russia proper, so Moscow might kick up a fuss about this.
In any case, this is ultimately great news for the rest of Europe, Poland in particular. The Baltic states have a lot of renewable energy potential, given their location on the Baltic Sea coast, where offshore wind promises to take off in the coming years.
With a fully integrated Baltic power grid and interconnectors, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania can build an even stronger business case for prospective developers as there will be a viable export market for any surplus green elections.
Poland is still very reliant on coal power and is looking to decarbonise its grid as quickly as possible. Being able to count to an extent on green imports will help that objective and also help developers there make investments.
The chances of success are rather good. Back in May 2022, just three months after Russia launched its invasion, Ukraine and neighbouring Moldova both synchronised their grids with Europe’s network.
Russia’s brutal military campaign meant that work was completed in record time, as it was needed to keep the lights on in those two countries. As EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson, an Estonian citizen, put it, it was also a strong political show of support.
Europe will have to be watchful in the coming six months for any signs that Russia may look to jeopardise the operation. Once completed, it will be yet another European dependency that has been neutralised.
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