Without strong, immediate action by governments, an unprecedented global epidemic of obesity will affect six out of every ten adults and one in three children and adolescents by 2050, according to a study published this week in The Lancet.
The study, published on Tuesday, includes data from 204 countries and territories, based on figures from the Global Burden of Disease, a large-scale programme funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The authors estimate that government inaction over the past 30 years has led to an alarming increase in the number of affected individuals.
Thrice the number of overweught adults
From 1990 to 2021, the number of overweight adults over 25 has nearly tripled, shooting up from 731 million to 2.11 billion, while the number of children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 has more than doubled, jumping from 198 million to 493 million.
Without urgent policy reforms and concrete actions, 60% of adults, or 3.8 billion people, and nearly a third of children and adolescents, or 746 million, will be overweight or obese by 2050, the study indicates.
To tackle “one of the biggest health challenges of the 21st century,” the study calls for five-year action plans (2025-2030) that include key measures such as regulating the advertising of ultra-processed foods, integrating sports infrastructure and playgrounds in schools, encouraging breastfeeding and balanced diets during pregnancy, and developing country-specific nutrition policies.
Global obesity among young people is projected to surge by 121% by 2050
“By 2050, a third of the young people with obesity, or 130 million, will live in two regions: North Africa and the Middle East, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean, with severe health, economic, and social consequences,” the authors note.
Global obesity among young people is projected to surge by 121%, with a total of 360 million obese children and adolescents by 2050. The most affected group, with a steep increase expected from 2022-2030, will be boys aged 5 to 14. By 2030, this category is expected to have more obese (16.5%) than overweight (12.9%) individuals.
This obesity epidemic will exacerbate the strain on already overburdened healthcare systems, especially in low-resource countries, as nearly a quarter of the world’s obese adults are expected to be 65 or older by 2050.
Obesity prevention needs to move to the front burner
“Obesity prevention must be at the forefront of policies in low and middle-income countries,” says Dr Jessica Kerr from the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia, one of the study’s lead authors.
Emphasising the narrow window for action, she calls for “much stronger political commitment” to “comprehensive strategies that improve nutrition, physical activity, and living environments.”
Overweight children and adolescents in much of Europe and South Asia need preventive strategies, while urgent intervention is required for many girls at risk of becoming obese in North America, Australia, Oceania, North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.
More than half of the world’s overweight or obese adults live in just eight countries: China (402 million), India (180 million), the United States (172 million), Brazil (88 million), Russia (71 million), Mexico (58 million), Indonesia (52 million), and Egypt (41 million), according to 2021 data.
