Under a cloud of uncertainty, American and Iranian delegations are headed on Saturday to Muscat, Oman, to start high-level talks on finding a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear programme in order to avoid a military escalation.
Iran’s lead negotiator, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, stated ahead of the talks that Iran seeks “a real and fair deal”. The American goal of the talks is to ensure that Iran will never acquire nuclear weapons. “I want Iran to be a wonderful, great, happy country. But they can’t have a nuclear weapon,” US President Donald Trump told reporters yesterday aboard Air Force One.
The American delegation is led by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, a business man who also represents the US in other talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine and with Israel and the mediators (Egypt and Qatar) on implementing the Israel – Hamas ceasefire and hostage agreement. The ceasefire broke down when Israel resumed the fighting in Gaza on 18 March.
The nuclear talks were first announced by US President Donald Trump during his joint press conference with Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu in the Oval Office in the beginning of the week. Israel, which has been considering a military attack with the US against Iran’s nuclear sites, was apparently not consulted in advance about the talks. The press conference was focused on the Trump administration's tariffs against the EU and the rest of the world.
At the press conference, Netanyahu said he had discussed Iran with Trump and had no choice but to accept the talks. “We’re both united in the goal that Iran does not ever get nuclear weapons.”
While having rejected a political solution to the endless war in Gaza, he admitted that there was space for diplomacy with Iran. “If it can be done diplomatically, in a full way, the way it was done in Libya, I think that would be a good thing. But whatever happens, we have to make sure that Iran does not have nuclear weapons.”
Diplomacy or military attack
Asked about the talks with Iran, Trump replied that “everybody agrees that doing a deal would be preferable to doing the obvious,” indirectly referring to a military attack against Iran’s nuclear programme.
“And the obvious is not something that I want to be involved with or, frankly, that Israel wants to be involved with if they can avoid it. So, we’re going to see if we can avoid it. But it’s getting to be very dangerous territory, and hopefully those talks will be successful. And I think it would be in Iran’s best interest if they are successful. We hope that’s going to happen.”
What happens if diplomacy fails? Is the US ready to take military action to destroy the Iranian nuclear program and remove this threat? “I’m sure we’ll be able to negotiate out of that too as part of this, later on down the line,” Trump replied.
“But Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. And if the talks aren’t successful, I actually think it will be a very bad day for Iran if that’s the case.” He did not elaborate on how a new deal will be more effective than the previous deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), but added that it will have to be “different and maybe a lot stronger”.
In 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, encouraged and ill-advised by the Netanyahu government in Israel, and reimposed the sanctions on Iran. But the “crippling” sanctions and “maximum pressure” on Iran did not break the country despite the devastating impact on its economy.
On the contrary, the sanctions achieved the opposite result with Iran violating the deal and steeping up its enriching of uranium. By now, Iran has become a “nuclear threshold” country, able of producing a nuclear weapon in a very short time should its Supreme Leader, Khamenei, and the hardliners in Iran decide so. The Islamist ayatollah regime in Teheran continues to threaten openly the destruction of Israel.
Scrambling for a new deal
Since the breakdown of the JCPoA, the EU and successive High Representatives for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, who have a coordinating role, have kept diplomatic channels open to Iran and been scrambling without success to restore the deal.
The EU continues to exclude any military option should diplomacy fail. Asked for a comment on the announcement of the new talks, Anouar El Anouni, EU spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, replied on Friday that there is no alternative to diplomacy. “The development (the announced talks) goes in the right direction and increases the chances of a diplomatic outcome. We in the EU would welcome it.”
He reiterated EU’s commitment to a diplomatic solution which is the “only sustainable way of addressing Iran’s nuclear programme”.
Although not being invited to participate in the nuclear talks, the EU has high stakes in them and is very much concerned about the outcome. It is not clear whether the EU aims, as in the past, just to a return to and the full delivery of the JCPoA - the lifting of US sanctions and, by Iran, the stopping and undoing of the steps that it has taken since US’s withdrawal.
The previous deal included so-called sunset clauses - the dates when Iran’s obligations will expire - and did not address Iran’s destabilization actions in the Middle East through terrorist proxy organisations. The EU is more aware than ever about Iran’s use of proxies since 7 October and the spill-over of the Gaza war to multiple fronts.
Upcoming foreign affairs council
The nuclear talks will probably be discussed at the upcoming foreign affairs council on 14 April - chaired by High Representative Kaja Kallas - where one of the major agenda points is the situation in the Middle East and the latest developments there.
A high-level EU official, commenting at a press briefing on Friday about the foreign affairs council, said that the EU has a long list of issues and grievances which it has conveyed to Iran. “It’s only Iran that can make them get away.” The list is not limited to the nuclear file but it is the most urgent one, he said.
The EU regretted that the US withdraw from the deal but Iran has since then violated its terms. “The Americans have not consulted with us on their approach and are not negotiating for us.” Without going into any details, he added that, “We have to look at the substance of the talks.”
According to the EU official, the EU stands united in its approach to Iran, referring to European Council conclusions where the EU has reiterated its “clear determination that Iran must never develop or acquire a nuclear weapon” and expressed its deep concerns about “the alarming acceleration of Iran’s nuclear programme”.
In recent summits, as Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continued and following Hamas’ terrorist attack on 7 October 2023, EU leaders have also condemned the deepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran, and Iran’s destabilizing actions in the Middle East and use of proxies.
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
