On Tuesday, the World Health Organisation (WHO) expressed concern that the "firm grip" of the Covid-19 epidemic in Europe could lead to an additional 700,000 deaths by spring.
This would bring the total number of deaths in the region, which also includes Russia and Central Asia, to 2.2 million by the spring of next year.
"High or extreme pressure on hospitals can be expected in 25 countries and high or extreme pressure on their ICU's in 49 of 53 countries by 1 March 2022," the organisation said in a statement.
"Cumulative reported deaths are expected to reach more than 2.2 million by next spring, based on current trends," the WHO added. Currently, more than 1.5 million people have died from Covid-19 in the region.
“In order to live with this virus and continue our daily lives, we need to take a ‘vaccine plus’ approach. This means getting the standard doses of vaccine, taking a booster if offered, as well as incorporating preventive measures into our normal routines," said Hans Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe.
"Taken together, wearing a mask, washing hands, ventilating indoor spaces, keeping physical distance and sneezing into your elbow are simple, effective ways of gaining control over the virus and keeping societies going," he added.
"All of us have the opportunity and responsibility to help avert unnecessary tragedy and loss of life, and limit further disruption to society and businesses over this winter season.”
'Worst-case scenario'
These figures are very different from those put forward in another analysis, based on research from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, which worked out a worst-case scenario for Europe.
The findings - which have not yet been peer-reviewed - were published on the preprint website MedRxiv and show that the pandemic could cause 300,000 more deaths and a million additionally hospitalisations across Europe if all restrictions were lifted and people returned to life as normal.
However, the mortality figures presented by the WHO are more than twice as high, but also include those in Russia and Central Asia.
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The overall results of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine's study show that even with high vaccination levels, countries can still expect waves of hospitalisation and deaths, the researchers stated.
According to biostatistician Geert Molenberghs (KU Leuven/UHasselt), however, the calculation of the number of already infected people is "far too imprecise," and biostatistician Tom Wenseleers (KU Leuven) stated that, among other things, the researchers' figures do not take into account the "non-Covid-related mortality that such a worst-case scenario would cause."
Yet, both of them agree on the general conclusion of the research, which shows how bad things could get, if people are not careful and governments stop vaccinating their populations.
“In the absence of measures, we would see hospitalisations and deaths of these orders of magnitude," said Molenberghs.
Update: this article has been updated to clarify that the WHO's Europe figures also include Russia and Central Asia.
