Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is still within reach according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released this week.
In 2010-2019, average annual global greenhouse gas emissions were at their highest levels in human history, but the rate of growth has slowed.
Since 2010, there have been sustained decreases of up to 85% in the costs of solar and wind energy, and batteries. An increasing range of policies and laws have enhanced energy efficiency, reduced rates of deforestation and accelerated the deployment of renewable energy.
“We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a liveable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming,” said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee.
“I am encouraged by climate action being taken in many countries. There are policies, regulations and market instruments that are proving effective. If these are scaled up and applied more widely and equitably, they can support deep emissions reductions and stimulate innovation.”
Limiting global warming will require major transitions in the energy sector, according to the report. This will involve a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels (such as hydrogen).
Need for lifestyles changes
“Having the right policies, infrastructure and technology in place to enable changes to our lifestyles and behaviour can result in a 40-70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This offers significant untapped potential,” said IPCC Working Group III Co-Chair Priyadarshi Shukla. “The evidence also shows that these lifestyle changes can improve our health and wellbeing.”
As already reported, Belgium’s Federal Government has launched “I have an impact” information campaign with five practical tips to encourage citizens to use less energy and changing lifestyle. The campaign aims at supporting Ukraine and reducing the dependence on import of fossil fuels from Russia but will also contribute to limiting global warming in the long term.
Cities and other urban areas offer significant opportunities for emissions reductions. These can be achieved through lower energy consumption (such as by creating compact, walkable cities), electrification of transport in combination with low-emission energy sources, and enhanced carbon uptake and storage using nature. There are options for established, rapidly growing and new cities.
Reducing emissions in industry will involve using materials more efficiently, reusing and recycling products and minimising waste. For basic materials, including steel, building materials and chemicals, low- to zero-greenhouse gas production processes are at their pilot to near-commercial stage.
The industry sector accounts for about a quarter of global emissions. Achieving net zero will be challenging and will require new production processes, low and zero emissions electricity, hydrogen, and, where necessary, carbon capture and storage.
Agriculture, forestry, and other land use can provide large-scale emissions reductions and also remove and store carbon dioxide at scale. However, land cannot compensate for delayed emissions reductions in other sectors. Response options can benefit biodiversity, help us adapt to climate change, and secure livelihoods, food and water, and wood supplies.
Critical years ahead
The next few years will be critical. In the scenarios assessed by IPCC, limiting warming to around 1.5°C requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030; at the same time, methane would also need to be reduced by about a third.
The assessment shows that limiting warming to around 2°C requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by a quarter by 2030.
Even if the goals are achieved, it is almost inevitable that the planet will temporarily exceed this temperature threshold but could return to below it by the end of the century. “It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C ,” said Skea. “Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”
The global temperature will stabilise when carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero. For 1.5°C, this means achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions globally in the early 2050s; for 2°C, it is in the early 2070s.
The drastic reductions in emissions in the next few years will be challenging to achieve. According to the critics, IPCC is basing its more optimistic scenarios on “negative emissions”, including capturing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The technologies for capturing and storing carbon are not yet developed to contribute significantly to the reduction of emissions required in the scenarios.
Which countries can serve as models?
On the positive side, a growing number of countries have reduced CO2 and GHG emissions for longer than 10 years. Data up to 2018 indicates that about 24 countries have reduced territorial CO2 and GHG emissions, as well as consumption-based CO2 emissions, for at least 10 years.
Asked which countries could serve as models for the rest of the world, Jan Minx, one of the Coordinating Lead Authors of the report, told The Brussels Times that IPCC did not name any of these countries because it was more interested in patterns. “Note that we didn’t analyse what caused the emissions decline on a country-specific level.”
Instead, he referred to a paper by William Lamb and others, who have grouped countries into three types of emissions pathways.
In six former Eastern Bloc countries, emissions declined rapidly in the 1990s and have continued on a downward trajectory since. Six Long-term decline countries have sustained reductions since the 1970. In 12 Recent peak countries, emissions decline began in the 2000s.
In all cases, emissions reductions were achieved primarily in the energy systems sector, specifically in electricity and heat generation, which still remains the largest source of emissions in most countries.
Almost all of these countries are in Europe, ranging across all of the continent’s diverse areas: from Scandinavia (e.g. Sweden, Finland, Denmark), to the Mediterranean (Spain, Italy, Greece), Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Hungary, Czech Republic) and Western Europe (France, Germany, the UK).
Two more countries outside of Europe have further contributed to lowering global emissions: the United States (US) and Jamaica. So far, no country in Asia or Africa meets the criteria for sustained emissions reductions.
Will the report influence the European Green Deal and EU’s Fit to 55- package?
A spokesperson of the European Commission replied that it welcomes the IPCC-report. “It’s the most comprehensive and authoritative scientific assessment of the action the world needs to take to stop global warming, avoid irreversible impacts in our planet and meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.”
Arriving in the midst of a geopolitical energy crisis, the findings reinforce the need for Europe to be climate-neutral, climate resilient and speed up its clean energy transition and uptake of renewables and energy efficiency, the spokesperson said.
“With our package of proposals made in July and December last year to deliver the European Green Deal, the EU is taking decisive action to cut net emissions by at least 55% by 2030 and reach climate neutrality by 2050.”
The IPCC report also shows that policies such as those implemented by the EU and member states over the past decade have delivered results and demonstrated options that are affordable and other countries can follow, according to the spokesperson.
“Despite progress at COP26 (the Climate change conference in Glasgow last year), global emissions are still trending in the wrong direction,” commented Vice-President Frans Timmermans, who is leading the Commission’s work on the European Green Deal. “Today’s report tells us we have to turn around, and quickly. As a first step, countries need to bring their national plans in line with the 1.5°C goal before the next conference in Egypt.”
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
