EU’s Foreign Affairs Council discussed a number of international conflicts and crises with focus on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and took some concrete decisions at its meeting in Luxembourg on Monday.
The Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, addressed EU ministers via video conference, from a bomb shelter in Kyiv while Russia was continuing its strikes on the city and briefed them about the latest developments on the ground and Ukraine's current priorities. At his press conference after the meeting, EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrel said that supporting Ukraine remains EU’s first priority.
“Putin is losing politically and morally,” he said. “In spite of that he continues the escalation, including indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets across Ukraine, as we have seen this morning.”
He also referred to the vote at the United Nations General Assembly last week (12 October), when an overwhelming majority adopted a resolution that condemned Russia’s "illegal so-called referendums" in regions within Ukraine’s internationally-recognized borders, and demands it reverses its annexation declaration. Iran (see below) was absent in the vote.
“This vote confirmed the international isolation of Russia,’” the High Representative added. “But we cannot take it for granted and we need to stay on the course of our triple strategy: supporting Ukraine, pressuring Russia and addressing the wider fall out of the war, because this war is affecting the whole world.”
The foreign ministers agreed to establish an EU Military Assistance Mission to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The mission will gradually train around 15,000 troops on EU soil. They also agreed to allocate further €500 million under the European Peace Facility to finance deliveries for the Ukrainian defence forces, thereby bringing EU’s military assistance for Ukraine to a total of €3.1 billion.
The Council was informed about the new discoveries of mass atrocities and reports about systematic kidnapping of children from Ukraine by Russian forces, and stressed that the fight against impunity must be strengthened.
Iranian drones in Russia’s war against Ukraine
The ministers also considered the reported use by Russia in the war in Ukraine of drones “allegedly supplied by Iran”. Media reported last week that the council might decide on sanctions against Iran for its military support of Russia. However, it was clear before the meeting started that it would only discuss the issue and not take any decision.
“This is something that will be discussed and we will look for concrete evidence about the participation that Iran is strongly – in the strongest possible terms – denying,” Borrell said. “Well, let’s see what is the information.”
After the meeting, the High Representative added that, “We are following very closely this use of drones. We are gathering evidence and we will be ready to react with the tools at our disposal. As I said, we are advancing in gathering evidence.”
In fact, both Ukraine and international media have recently reported about the delivery of Iranian attack or self-destructive explosive drones to Russia and that Russia already has used them in the strikes against Ukraine last week, including the strikes against Kiev yesterday when the council meeting took place. Some of them have been intercepted and shot down by the Ukrainian air defence.
Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter reported that the Iranian drones, called Shahed-136, have a range of 2,000 km, can be equipped with 50 kg explosives and are relatively cheap to manufacture (€20,000). Russia reportedly started receiving them since August and has ordered thousands of them according to Ukrainian sources.
But the foreign affairs council is not yet prepared to impose sanctions on Iran. “It’s an on-going process,” explained Borrell without giving any details. “Sanctions must be based on evidence.” He had talked to the Iranian foreign minister who denied categorically that Iran has provided Russia with drones.
As regards the internal suppression and human rights violations in Iran there is plenty of evidence. In addition to previous restrictive measures, the Council decided to impose sanctions against 11 individuals and 4 entities for their role in the death of Mahsa Amini and the violent response to the recent demonstrations in Iran. The sanctions are in the form of a travel ban and an asset freeze.
These sanctions have been criticized as mainly symbolical but Borrell assured that, “The government of Iran will not like them because of their political impact. This is how we start a process of manifesting our disapproval of what is going on in Iran.”
Nuclear threats by Russia and Iran
He did not address the question whether EU’s reluctance to impose harder sanctions against Iran is linked to the negotiations on a nuclear deal (JCPoA). According to Borrell’s compromise proposal last August, the economic sanctions again Iran will be lifted in return for full compliance with the agreement, preventing it from developing nuclear weapons.
For the time being, however, the negotiations have been stalled in the last weeks, he admitted. “It is a pity because we were very close. We have to wait. But you know, the whole world would be much more secure. The region certainly, the Europeans also. But today, it would be so good to have good news on this side. I do not expect that.”
High Representative Borrell is well aware of Kremlin’s threats to use “all the means at its disposal to protect Russia and its people”, including nuclear weapons, if Russia or its annexed territory in Ukraine is threatened. “This is not a bluff,” President Putin said. There is widespread fear that if Russia is losing the war with conventional weapons, it might be tempted to escalate and deploy tactical nuclear weapons.
Borrell himself referred to it in his speech last week (13 October) at the inauguration of the new European Diplomatic Academy at the College of Europe in Bruges. Addressing the nuclear threat, he used some undiplomatic language.
“Putin is saying that he is not bluffing. He cannot afford bluffing. It has to be clear that EU and NATO aren’t bluffing either. In any nuclear attack against Ukraine, we’ll create an answer, not a nuclear one, from the military side, that will annihilate the Russian army.”
Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons it had inherited from the former Soviet Union (USSR) – potentially the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal at the time according to historian Serhii Plokhy in his book on the history of Ukraine. In the Budapest Memorandum signed in December 1994, the US, Russia and Great Britain provide security guarantees for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
By annexing Crimea in 2014 and invading Ukraine on 24 February this year, Russia breached the Budapest Memorandum and its bilateral treaty with Ukraine. The crucial question now is if any country in possession of nuclear weapons can be tempted to threaten to use them to get away with aggression or to defend what it claims are its strategic interests.
Iran is even more reckless than Russia and is ruled by a religious ideology. It threatens to destroy Israel and supports Russia. Does Russia’s threat to use nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine have any implications for EU’s position on the nuclear deal with Iran?
Peter Stano, EU’s lead spokesperson on foreign affairs, replied that there is no relation between the JCPoA and Russia's nuclear threats. “The main objective of the JCPoA is to prevent Iran from obtaining military nuclear capacities. The JCPoA when delivering fully will ensure international oversight over Iranian nuclear program.”
“One of the key reasons why a hypothetical Iranian nuclear threat cannot be compared with real nuclear threats made by Russia is the fact that Russia is one of only five permanent members of the UN Security Council where it has veto power. It possesses as sizeable arsenal of nuclear weapons (up to 6.000 warheads) that are capable to destroy the world several times.”
Asked the same question, Professor Efraim Inbar, President Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, replied that, on the contrary, one clear lesson Iran has learned from the war in Ukraine is to continue its nuclear program. “Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal and was attacked by Russia. The war also brought Russia and Iran closer.”
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
