The geopolitical situation in Syria and the difficulties in providing humanitarian aid to the victims of the recent earthquake there has also directed the spotlight to the complicated situation in the north-eastern part of the country which since the civil war is ruled by a Kurdish-led autonomous administration.
As previously reported, the administration has established a functioning local self-government and its militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces, including both Kurds and Arabs, fought successfully the Islamic State (IS) in partnership with US forces. In the war, thousands of Kurdish soldiers were killed.
As the result of the war against IS, the Kurdish administration detained tens of thousands of foreign fighters and their families in camps pending a solution to their repatriation to their home countries and to bringing the fighters to justice for war crimes.
The humanitarian situation in north-east Syria has been precarious since 2018 when Turkey and its proxy forces invaded Afrin in the north-western part of Syria. Since then, Turkey has launched more invasions across the border to Syria and threatens to invade again.
Border crossings are still closed and no humanitarian aid can reach AANES directly. Any humanitarian aid, even aid intended for north-east Syria, has to arrive via the Damascus government.
Turkey continues to claim that the Autonomous Administration there threatens its security and is linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which also appears on EU’s list of terrorist organisations, contrary to the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the armed wing of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) in north-east Syria.
Repatriation of families
Turkey has brought about demographic changes close to ethnic cleansing in the areas occupied by its forces along the border, according to Dr Abdulkarim Omar, foreign affairs representative of the Autonomous Administration of North-Easth Syria (AANES).
“There are 5 million inhabitants in AANES in total, of them ca 1 million displaced people from other parts of Syria, incl. 100,000 Kurdish people,” he told The Brussels Times in an interview. “Before the Turkish invasion of Afrin, 500,000 people were living there.”
The situation in the detention or refugee camps for IS foreign fighters and their families continue to raise serious concerns. There are about 12,000 foreign fighters in the camps in AANES, of them ca 5,000 from Syria, 5,000 from Iraq and the rest from ca 55 other countries. There are also tens of thousands of children and women, most of them in them al-Hawl camp.
While the camp is guarded from the outside, the foreign fighters control it internally and riots and executions have taken place there, he says. “A new generation of would-be fighters is growing up in the camps, imbued with a radical terrorist ideology.”
The Kurdish administration has appealed to the International Criminal Court in the Hague for help but it appears unwilling to put them to trial. There are talks about it but no solution is expected in the near future.
As regards the families with links to the EU, some countries such as Sweden, Norway, Germany, France and the Netherlands have taken back some of them. It is a difficult and slow process which requires proper documents and the support of their foreign ministries. Most of the families who have been repatriated have returned to Iraq.
Prosecution of foreign fighters
Alternatively, a war tribunal could be established in AANES as the crimes were committed there. But this would require an international agreement and economic support to AANES for building prisons and for the rehabilitation of the former fighters who did not commit any war crimes. “For the time being nothing happens and it has become a ticking bomb which could explode anytime.”
What worries Abdulkarim Omar the most is the danger of a Turkish invasion which Turkey’s President Erdogan has threatened. An invasion would deflect attention from Turkey’s internal problems. According to Omar, Turkey is responsible for the situation as the foreign fighters arrived in Syria via Turkey and even the attempted breakouts from the detention camps were organized from Turkey.
“A Turkish invasion would destabilize the region and result in the revival of IS,” he warns. “Turkey has already occupied towns on our side of the border. If they would invade, our region would again become a safe haven for foreign fighters. An invasion would embolden what is left of IS.”
He ensured that AANES does not regard Turkey as an enemy. “We are neighbors and have asked other countries to mediate between us. Our goal is to remain in a united, new, and decentralized Syria, not to create our own state. The status of north-east Syria should be guaranteed in a future constitution.”
“We want the conflict to be solved according to UN Security Council Resolution 2254,” he added. “But we aren’t even invited to any meetings in the UN-led peace process.”
Does the EU have any relations with AANES and what role does it play in the peace process?
“The state of play was recently recalled at the G7 meeting in Japan,” Peter Stano, EU’s lead spokesperson for foreign affairs, told The Brussels Time, referring to the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Karuizawa, Japan, in mid-April, where the EU was represented by High Representative Josep Borrell.
The meeting ended with a statement which reiterated G7’s commitment to “an inclusive, UN-facilitated political process consistent with UN Security Council resolution 2254” which was adopted in 2015. The statement also underscored “the need for the international community to continue supporting the UN Special Envoy”.
Furthermore, the ministers stated that the international communsity can only consider reconstruction assistance after there is an authentic and enduring progress towards a political solution in line with the resolution. The statement also condemned the atrocities against the Syrian people and called for unhindered humanitarian access to all Syrians in need.
“For us it’s important that the solution in Syria is Syrian-led and Syrian-owned under the auspices of the UN,” Peter Stano said, referring to the UNSC resolution.
“We continue to believe that the international community must redouble its efforts to reach a sustainable and comprehensive political solution in line with the relevant UN resolutions.” One condition is that the unity and territorial integrity of Syria must be respected.
A solution should be found within this process with the participation of all relevant Syrian actors, he added. “The Kurds are a very important part of the population and political landscape in Syria and need to be part of the process in some way or another. This was the gist of the G7 statement.”
But there is a problem. The UN resolutions refer to a coalition of groups based in Istanbul as representing the opposition in Syria. A diplomatic source involved in the process and who spoke on the condition of anonymity told The Brussels Times that the coalition includes Kurds but not anyone representing AANES.
Unsuccessful UN-led process
In practice the UN-led process has not been very successful and there are no direct negotiations on-going. The same goes for the constitutional committee which has not been convened for a long time. The EU plays no formal role in this process besides expressing support for it. Some EU countries have their own special envoys for Syria but not the EU as a whole.
Professor Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and an observer of political developments I Turkey, does not believe that the UN can do anything to solve the problem. In practice, the conflict between Turkey and AANES has become a frozen conflict.
In the aftermath of the devastating earthquake, Turkey announced changes in its foreign policy and reached out to Egypt, Greece, Israel and Armenia. But there are no signs of any change in its position on AANES and that it will accept that the Kurdish region retains its current autonomous status within a future decentralized Syria in the framework of a political solution.
“Turkey may invade again, waiting for the right opportunity, but for the time being Russia is stopping them from doing it,” he said. Moreover, presidential elections are scheduled to take place in Turkey on 14 May, alongside parliamentary elections. The leading opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has managed to unite the opposition parties, and has emerged with promises of change.
Himself belonging to the Alevi community, the largest religious minority, though unrecognized, in Turkey, he could be more willing to find a negotiated solution with AANES than the incumbent president. But this is not likely to happen after the elections in Turkey, whatever the outcome, according to professor Inbar. Anyway, Turkey will demand something in return to agree to a solution.
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
