Growth in the global aviation market and the replacement of existing aircraft with less-polluting planes is set to double the number of passenger and freight aircraft worldwide in the next 20 years, Airbus predicts.
In an annual forecast published on Wednesday, just a few days before the important International Air and Space Show in the Le Bourget (Paris), the aircraft manufacturer forecast the need for 40,850 new passenger and cargo planes by 2042. Accounting for planes decommissioned, this would bring the global fleet to 46,560 aircraft. In 2020, there were just 22,880 aircraft internationally.
This estimate is slightly increased (+3.4%) compared to previous predictions published before the Farnborough air show in July last year.
Manufacturing boom
While Airbus is counting on growth in demand for new aircraft, it also anticipates that the number of aircraft needed to meet the growth in air traffic will be slightly lower than previously predicted. However, more aircraft will need to be replaced than had previously been thought.
“We are seeing an increase in deliveries, but these are more replacement deliveries, for fleet renewal and for more fuel-efficient aircraft,” explained Bob Lange, head of business analysis and market forecasting at Airbus.
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The global aviation sector has committed to carbon neutrality by 2050, which notably involves more fuel-efficient planes, therefore emitting less CO2.
Currently, only a quarter of the fleet in service consists of the latest generation of aircraft, which consume up to 25% less fuel than the previous generation. Airbus expects a 3.6% average annual growth in air traffic.
