BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES
Weekly analysis with Sam Morgan
Every five years the EU transfer window opens as the big institutional jobs are put on the line, prompting rampant speculation about which of Brussels’ best, brightest and devious personalities will manage to hook or hold on to a top position. Here we go…
Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s competition chief and one-time candidate for European Commission president, announced this week that she is running to be the next head of the European Investment Bank (EIB).
This is an early development in silly season, as it confirms that the Danish official’s long-term stint in Brussels appears to be wrapping up. If she is successful in landing the job, it will have a big knock-on effect on the hopes and dreams of other big names.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
In June 2024, the EU elections will determine the makeup of the European Parliament and a new European Commission will have to be appointed by the end of the year to replace the current executive branch.
Ursula von der Leyen, the current president, appears to be on course to seek a second term, as Europe’s leaders cry out for a bit of continuity amid the permacrisis we are navigating.
Her EPP political group is likely to be returned as the largest in the Parliament again, clearing the way for her to be reappointed via a zombie Spitzenkandidat process purely because the result will already be known.
One small caveat that occurs to Behind the Scenes: maybe von der Leyen is eyeing the NATO sec-gen job. With Jens Stoltenberg on the cusp of being convinced by the US to extend his mandate for a year, it might line up nicely for the German politician.
With her defence background and NATO’s bump in prestige thanks to Russia’s Ukraine invasion, perhaps she would see it as a step up from Comm HQ.
However, Germany has not exactly covered itself in glory over the last 18 months, so perhaps von der Leyen’s chances of being considered for the job are not particularly credible. Time will tell.
Then you have the European Council presidency, which national leaders will sort out behind closed doors.
Charles Michel is not eligible for the job as is two-and-a-half year term has already been renewed once. That has to make von der Leyen’s chances more likely as a Michel-less work environment is probably quite appealing to her.
A couple of names have been bandied about already, including now-former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin and current Dutch PM Mark Rutte. It will ultimately be determined by where the Commission job goes and, maybe, vibes.
Unlike 2019, this is not a grandslam top job market as the European Central Bank presidency, which operates on a seven-year rolling cycle instead of five, is not on the line. Christine Lagarde will remain on banknotes until at least 2026.
If we contrast Lagarde’s profile with Vestager’s, we see quite a lot of similarities. Neither are bankers by trade but both served as economy ministers in their respective governments and both made a name for themselves at supranational level, the EU and IMF.
Both have also shattered the glass ceiling.
Vestager though is at a disadvantage in that she does not hail from a major member state like France or Germany. Plus her political party is not in power, not necessarily a death knell for her ambitions but it does not do her any favours either.
Seeking the EIB job is a smart play by Vestager. Her Renew Europe group will not be in the running for the Commission presidency and could fail to match its result from 2019, reducing her chances further of getting something high-profile in Brussels.
The EU bank is set to play a bigger-than-ever role in policymaking as it will be the go-to for big infrastructure projects and financing for the clean energy transition. Hundreds of billions of euros will flow through the triple-A rated lender.
If she can make her case, convince the bank’s 27 member state shareholders of her merits and fend off any score-settling that might transpire, Vestager can use it as a powerful platform to extend her career and, also, do a lot of good.
With Vestager out of the picture, what would that mean for competition policy? Emmanuel Macron’s man in Brussels, Thierry Breton, would surely seek that brief for himself as part of a big executive VP portfolio.
Whether a German-led executive would want to grant France that much sway over such a key area is doubtful but maybe that is the price that will have to be paid in order for von der Leyen to stay in the hot seat.
Elsewhere in the silly season job market, what will become of the EU’s Cousin Greg, Manfred Weber? Unceremoniously passed over for the Commission gig last time out when the Council decided to dump him and Spitzenkandidat, his stock continues to dip.
Take this week as an example: his EPP Group was behind a hit-job on the EU’s proposed nature restoration law, attempting to get it cancelled in committee. Its initial bid failed but after voting time ran out, we will find out next week what the damage will be.
EU governments in the meantime voted in favour of the law, agreeing on a common approach that the Council will defend in talks once the Parliament gets its act together.
Just Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden voted against it, meaning plenty of EPP-controlled countries supported the measure. Weber sure does have a talent for losing friends and alienating people.
Maybe he will seek the Parliament presidency. But after the sterling job done by colleague Roberta Metsola — at least from a PR point of view — it would be a tough act for the Bavarian politician to follow.
Behind the Scenes will be back soon with more top job speculation, because I just cannot help myself.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
