A Belgian military expert has issued a pessimistic assessment of Ukraine's prospects of victory in its ongoing war with Russia, highlighting the inadequate supply of ammunition and diminishing number of reservists that could pose major difficulties to Kyiv's army this autumn.
Speaking to l'Echo, former Belgian Army Colonel Roger Housen noted that he also did not expect Russia to win a "decisive victory" in the next couple of years but surmised that "in the best case scenario" the war will become a "frozen conflict... with all the instability that this entails on the international scene".
However, Housen said that Russia nevertheless enjoys "a triple advantage" with its larger population, hundreds of thousands of new recruits, and its more resilient economy.
"Unless oil and gas prices collapse, Russia can hold out for another two or three years at the current rate, while Ukraine is on a Western drip-feed." In light of these realities, the expert warned of the unfavourable prospects for Ukraine.
Waiting on the West
Housen was especially negative about the state of Ukraine's current counteroffensive, noting that Kyiv lost a fifth of the tanks supplied by Western countries during the operation's first week.
"Right now, [the counteroffensive] is not working. The first Russian line is still holding and in places there are five defensive lines at a depth of 30 to 40 kilometres."
Housen expressed deep concern about Ukraine's lack of ammunition, which he attributed to the "weakness" of the West's military production capacity. "Ukrainian artillery currently consumes 8,000 shells per day – a third of the monthly production of shells by the United States."
He explained that "at the start of their counteroffensive, Ukraine had a stock of 600,000 shells. Enough to last 75 days. However, we are already at day 60 of the counter-offensive."
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Furthermore, Housen predicted that the Western delivery of F-16 planes to Kyiv would not change the outcome of the war, saying that the same was true with Leopard tanks or Patriot missile batteries. He suggested that the US's controversial shipment of cluster munitions to Ukraine will at best serve as a stop-gap solution to plug Kyiv's artillery shortages.
"The cluster bomb deliveries have given [Ukraine] some air, but I think they will have a big ammunition problem starting in autumn. Added to this are the very high human losses. Here, too, I fear that by autumn they will begin to run out of reservists."
