BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES
Weekly analysis with Sam Morgan
Bulgaria and Romania’s dreams of becoming fully integrated members of the European Union, by joining both the euro- and Schengen zones, took a step forward this week. They can thank the European Commission for some clever manoeuvring.
When Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU all the way back in 2007, they did not become fully integrated members of the club and, unlike other new entrants, were subject to extra monitoring checks by the authorities in Brussels.
Shortcomings in combating organised crime in Bulgaria and judicial reform in Romania were still a major issue, so an extra regime known as the cooperation and verification mechanism (CVM) was set up to turbocharge progress.
This week, after just 16 years and numerous reports, the European Commission was able to lift the extra measures and draw a line under the affair. It may trigger long-delayed progress elsewhere.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
Bulgaria and Romania have always sat in somewhat of a halfway house between EU candidates and EU members. In the club but not of it. Allowed to join but were they really ready?
These are some of the ideas and questions that still, unfairly or not, exist about the two countries’ membership of the bloc. These ideas have only been emboldened by the ongoing existence of the CVM measures.
The fact that both countries want to join the eurozone and Schengen passport-free area but have been kept at arm’s length, adds to this perception that the current EU format is something like a 25+2, not a true 27.
Other countries, of course, do not use the euro but that is their choice. Sweden, for example, keeps the krona outside of the convergence criteria so it does not have to honour its pledge to join the single currency. Ireland and Cyprus are not in Schengen, for obvious reasons.
Croatia, meanwhile, joined both zones in January 2023, just 10 years after joining the EU. Bulgaria and Romania have met the technical criteria to join Schengen for more than 12. Both are making necessary efforts to pair their currencies with the euro.
But still they are denied.
The Commission has always insisted that there is no link between the CVM and Schengen membership. This is true, from a technical point of view, but politically speaking of course there is a link.
National governments that are opposed to Eastern European Schengen expansion have blown dog whistles about organised crime and judicial failings, citing the continued existence of the CVM as reason to delay a membership decision.
Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission president, said during her big state of the union speech this week that both countries should be admitted without further delay.
Austria is one of the most vocal opponents and immediately responded to von der Leyen’s call, saying “it does not make sense” to extend the zone at the moment because migration figures across Europe are rising. It is a strawman argument.
Funny that this issue did not come up when Croatia was admitted, even though the Adriatic nation lies smack dab in the middle of the Western Balkans migration route.
Romania has had enough now and has threatened to sue Austria for GDP losses at the European Court of Justice. Whether that legal case pays off seems unlikely but it is significant that Bucharest is not taking the ongoing rejection lying down.
They are also coming up with solutions, whereas the naysayers see only problems. If Bulgaria-Romania are in Schengen, that frees up resources on their internal EU borders for external border controls.
Given that the likes of Austria are obsessed with controlling who comes across those frontiers, Vienna and its allies should logically back a ‘Fortress Europe’ approach to Schengen. They do not seem to see it that way though.
There is a bigger problem at play here too. The European Commission says both countries qualify for membership but that advice is being ignored and outright rejected by some EU governments.
There is a breakdown in trust happening between institutions that episodes like this only worsens. One EU official told Behind the Scenes that this is “really a slippery slope” and could fuel more Euroscepticism.
But do not despair yet, Bulgarians and Romanians.
The lifting of the CVM measures could yet trigger something significant. Austria and its backers cannot play this game forever, as they will ultimately need to trade horses behind closed doors.
Whether it is on energy policy, other migration issues or trade, Austria will want something and those in favour of Schengen expansion might ask for a quid pro quo. The CVM being lifted makes that discussion easier.
Better to get it done ahead of next year's EU elections too, in order to get that pro-EU boost that membership would surely provide.
Schengen could act like a domino. Bulgaria is ploughing ahead with plans to join the euro next year and if they can pair it with Schengen accession, in the same way Croatia did, all the better.
Romania has more work to do on monetary policy but is getting there. A positive outlook for the nation will only hasten that process.
Another point that is worth making: Bulgaria-Romania ties may be stronger than ever by the time this entire saga wraps up. Comrades in arms fighting the same fight, persecuted by the same enemies. This might affect power dynamics in other areas, so stay tuned.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
