House price inflation in Belgium fell to its lowest level in nearly a decade over the second quarter of 2023, adding weight to previous forecasts that real estate prices will actually decline over the last six months of this year.
House price inflation fell to 1.8% from April to June, according to a report published on Friday by Statbel, Belgium's official statistics office: "a sharp decrease" compared to the 4.4% rate from January to March.
Belgian house price inflation has steadily fallen since peaking at 8.2% in the third quarter of 2021. The last time it fell below current levels was in the fourth quarter of 2015, when it reached 1.5%.
A welcome decline
Statbel's study follows numerous reports that house prices will actually decrease (i.e. that house price inflation will become negative) over the second half of this year, as rising mortgage rates suppress demand in Belgium's real estate sector.
"Owners are starting to accept a drop in prices," Amaury Hermanns, Director of the Etterbeek-based Hermanns Real Estate agency, recently told La Dernière Heure. "We expect to see a decline of 5%."
Hermanns' prediction is supported by a report published last month by ING Belgium, which estimated that real estate prices will decrease by 3% over the second half of this year. It also forecast that prices will only "recover cautiously" in 2024.
Despite the recent steep decline, house price inflation in Belgium remains extremely high compared to neighbouring countries.
Credit: Statbel
In the first quarter of this year (the latest period for which there is data for all countries), France posted a house price inflation rate of just 2.9% – 1.5 percentage points below Belgium – while the Netherlands and Germany both recorded negative rates (of -0.1% and -6.8%, respectively).
House prices in Belgium are also very high by historical standards. The current average cost of a Belgian home is €320,937, up from €253,608 in 2018.
