Drastic changes are approaching if risks to our fundamental socioecological systems are not addressed in time, a scientific report warns ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai (30 November – 12 December 2023).
The Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2023, published last week by the United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), warns of six risk tipping points: accelerating extinctions, groundwater depletion, mountain glaciers melting, space debris, unbearable heat, and uninsurable future.
UNU-EHS operates as a think tank and is also engaged in education on Master level in cooperation with the University of Bonn. “The report serves as a timely reminder before the UN Climate Conference that we must all be part of the solution,” said Dr Zita Sebesvari, Senior Expert & Deputy Director at UNU-EHS and one of the lead authors of the report.
The new report follows last year’s report by UNU-EHS which analyzed 10 disasters from around the world. They were selected to be representative of a larger global issue to identify shared root causes and drivers of disasters. That report came up with several solutions which can prevent or reduce a number of disaster risks.
Solutions, mitigation and adaptation measures are already being implemented around the world to address risks, but interconnectivity is not yet placed at the heart of solution design and implementation, according to UNU-EHS.
A risk tipping point is defined in the new report as the moment at which a given socioecological system is no longer able to buffer risks and provide its expected functions, after which the risk of catastrophic impacts to these systems increases substantially.
The diverse cases in the report illustrate that risk tipping points extend beyond the single domains of climate, ecosystems, society or technology. Instead, they are inherently interconnected, and they are also closely linked to human activities and livelihoods. “We need to turn interconnectivity to our advantage,” Dr Sebesvari said.
Life depends on water
One example of a tipping point that the report explains is groundwater depletion. Underground water reservoirs (aquifers) are an essential freshwater resource around the world and supply drinking water to over 2 billion people. Around 70 per cent of groundwater withdrawals are used for agriculture, oftentimes when there is not sufficient water from above-ground sources available.
Today, aquifers help to mitigate half of the losses in agriculture caused by drought, a phenomenon which is only expected to increase in the future due to climate change. But the report warns that now the aquifers themselves are approaching a tipping point because the imbalance between infiltration and extraction. Saudi Arabia has already surpassed this groundwater risk tipping point, others, like India, are not far from it.
“As we indiscriminately extract our water resources, damage nature and biodiversity, and pollute both Earth and space, we are moving dangerously close to the brink of multiple risk tipping points that could destroy the very systems that our life depends on,” said Dr Sebesvari. “Additionally, we also lose some of our tools and options to deal with future disaster risk.”
“As we see in our research, groundwater depletion is happening all over the world, as climate change, drought, and increasing demands are putting pressure on these water resources,” lead author Melisa Mena Benavides told The Brussels Times. For example, southern Spain has been hit by a drought which was aggravated by a contaminated and disconnected water reservoir.
“For the case of Pozoblanco in Spain, authorities and the water administration company have proposed to increase the reuse of treated wastewater - which is one of the solutions we present in our report,” she said. “Other measures include the enhancement of natural aquifer recharge processes or the promotion of agricultural production systems that make more efficient use of water.”
“One single measure is not enough and a package of solutions is better,” she summarized. “Beyond specific measures, our report invites us to think about the future we want to create, one that is more sustainable and equitable.”
Colliding space debris
One less known tipping point is the risk of damage caused by debris in space. As the number of satellites increases, so does the problem of space debris, which poses a threat to both functioning satellites and the future of our orbit. Out of more than 34,000 objects tracked in orbit, only around 25 per cent are working satellites while the rest are junk, such as broken satellites or discarded rocket stages.
The number of satellites has increased significantly since the launch of small satellites into space by Elon Musk’s SpaceX company. The number might increase to 100,000 by 2030 if all applications in the current permission process are approved.
“It’s absolutely essential to talk about the increasing risks in space due to mega constellations, a collection of many satellites that form a network,” commented lead author Caitlyn Eberle.
“Now we are sending hundreds of satellites up to form these networks. They are a relatively new development in the low Earth orbit that can provide great opportunities for global internet coverage, but greatly increases the danger of collisions in orbit.”
“One study found that adding one mega-constellation in the low Earth orbit environment will increase the number of catastrophic collisions by 50 per cent over the next 200 years,” she added. “As such, we critically need to take an abundance of caution with the number of satellites we are launching, as well as concrete plans to bring them back to Earth in a safe and timely manner.”
“As we approach the tipping points, we will already begin to experience the impacts. "Once crossed, it will be difficult to go back,” warned Dr Jack O’Connor, Lead Author and Senior Expert at UNU-EHS. “Our report can help us see risks ahead of us, the causes behind them, and the urgent changes required to avoid them.”
Two solutions, two actions
The report does not just define and identify risk tipping points, but it also proposes a new framework to avoid or mitigate the consequences. Solutions fall into two categories: Avoid solutions, which target root causes and drivers of risk to avoid risk tipping points altogether and Adapt solutions, which help prepare or better address the negative impacts of risk tipping points if they cannot be avoided.
For both Avoid and Adapt solutions, there are two types of actions. Delay actions work within the existing “business as usual” system and aim to slow down the progression toward risk tipping points or the worst impacts. But the ideal action is to Transform, which involves a fundamental reimagining of a system into something stronger and more sustainable than before.
In the case of the “Unbearable heat” risk tipping point described in the report, it is human-induced climate change that is causing a global rise in temperatures, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves that will in some areas reach temperatures in which the human body can no longer survive.
An Adapt-Delay solution would aim to counteract this risk by installing air conditioners, for example. The air conditioners will delay when the risk tipping point is reached for the people in the area, but will not address the heat itself.
An Avoid-Transform solution, on the other hand, would aim to halt the emissions of greenhouse gasses and at the same time drive societal change toward low-carbon ways of living so the tipping point can ultimately be avoided.
The report finds that solutions being implemented today tend to focus on Delay rather than Transform, although increasing focus is being put on transformative change to achieve global goals on transitioning to a more sustainable future. It will require more game-changing solutions to move us away from a future of multiplying risk tipping points.
“Our report is very much linked to climate change,” Dr O’Connor concluded. “It’s one of the main drivers behind most of the tipping points.” Unbearable heat in particular is caused by climate change due to green-house gas emissions. Furthermore, the extensive use of air-conditioning to cope with the heat results in an increase of cooling related emissions.
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
