BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES
Weekly analysis with Sam Morgan
The European Council will soon need a new president as Charles Michel’s term in office slowly ends with a whimper. But the leading candidates to replace him keep ruling themselves out of the running, both willingly and unwillingly.
Michel cannot be appointed to chair the Council for another term because he will soon hit up against the once-renewable two-and-a-half year limit. Not that there are many leaders in the Council that would want another 30 months in his company.
So a new face is needed, preferably one that has served as a head of state or government – although not necessarily – and one who will be unemployed next summer. A couple of high-profile names fitted the bill not so long ago but are now looking less likely.
Does anybody even want the job?
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa was until this week seen as a strong candidate for the job. Well-liked, hailing from a smaller country that will not leverage him to wield extra power in Brussels and from the Socialist group, Costa checked a lot of boxes.
Then he had to go and get caught up in a corruption probe into energy contracts. Investigators are still going about their work but it has already done its damage: Costa resigned this week and will leave office once parliament passes the new budget.
Nothing has of course been proven yet, so there is every chance that Costa will be cleared of any involvement. That might actually mean he is a completely free agent when the Council starts its discussions in earnest.
Or the inquest might prove he was involved in the alleged corruption and influence peddling. It is hard to gauge what leaders will think about either scenario but what is certain is that his odds are nowhere near as good as they were last week.
In order for the usual horse-trading to be done and for the conservative-right’s Ursula von der Leyen to be reconfirmed as Commission president for another five years, some sort of grand bargain will need to be struck.
That is why it is likely that the Socialists will be offered the Council job – according to current vote projections anyway – in order to make their peace with von der Leyen’s candidacy. That is why Spain’s Pedro Sanchez was another top name in the frame.
But the chances of the tall, dark and handsome Spaniard being free to do the job were also slashed this week after he managed to strike a deal with Catalan separatists to back his coalition government.
It means he is likely to remain Spain’s prime minister even after a summer election yielded no conclusive result. Not only will he be unavailable he may also have tainted his chances because of the way he has secured the Catalan support.
A new amnesty law directed at convicted members of the Catalan parties who organised 2017’s illegal independence referendum has proved to be predictably controversial both at home and abroad.
Certain aspects of Sanchez’s reform will allegedly curtail judicial independence, a fact noted in Brussels, where EU justice officials are already looking over the details of the proposed deal.
The EU is already struggling to rein in law of rule violations in Hungary and Poland, so appointing a head of government that may be responsible for the very same genre of infringements seems off. There is a whiff of hypocrisy already emanating from the idea.
Maybe it won’t have to be a socialist in charge. The result will depend on June’s European Parliament election and who can command majorities in the aftermath. Charles Michel hails from the liberal Renew group and they may want to hold onto the job.
The prime candidate that fulfils that potential role is the Netherlands’ Mark Rutte, who will be out of a job by the end of the month after Dutch elections are held. He is not standing for reelection and is done with domestic politics for now.
But, again, Rutte may have ruled himself out of the running by admitting that the NATO Secretary-General position is appealing. Incumbent Jens Stoltenberg keeps having his mandate renewed but that cannot happen indefinitely, so a new Alliance head is needed.
Rutte may just be playing the field and keeping his options open. The NATO job is obviously more high-profile given the geopolitical situation and the level of leaders that he would be in contact with on a daily basis.
The Council presidency might also be appealing. It is a world he already knows very well, the stakes are less intense so the stress levels are manageable, he has a good working relationship with von der Leyen and the pay is good.
Other candidates that spring to mind include Finland’s Sanna Marin, a former prime minister. She insisted when leaving office that she was taking a break from politics and quickly ruled herself out of the running to be her country’s next president.
Marin would be a great change of pace (and gender) for the Council and her leadership would bring a breath of fresh air to the institution. There would also be a great chance of having all three major EU institutions led by women at the same time.
But remember that the Council appoints its chair behind closed doors. They do not care about optics or anything like that. It is all vested interest. Whether Marin would meet any of their criteria is a tough one to call but Behind the Scenes’ gut regrettably says no.
Her fellow countryman, Alexander Stubb, always gets a mention during top job hunts, even though he is currently running to be Finnish president. He is EPP but his profile otherwise fits the Council president job ad quite nicely.
Italy’s Mario Draghi has been writing a big EU report on the bloc’s economic future, so clearly still has a taste for Brussels politics. Could he be tempted out of semi-retirement to take the job?
You get the feeling that Angela Merkel’s legacy is still a bit tainted by the events triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and her policies towards Moscow during her chancellorship. Plus, with von der Leyen at the Commission, Germany probably has enough power already.
One final name worth mentioning is Frans Timmermans. The Dutchman is hoping to be made Dutch prime minister later this month but the polls are too tight to predict if his efforts will pay off.
He has not served as head of state or government, he has only been a minister. But he has been deputy head of the European Commission for nearly a decade. He knows Brussels inside out and is a high-profile name to put in the president’s chair.
Timmermans is probably too good a candidate though and would do too good a job. EU leaders do not want a heavyweight in the job, remember. They want someone to plan meetings, shake hands, read statements and keep out of trouble.
Charles Michel does have a brother…
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
