The European Commission has greeted the final agreement of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai as a success which keeps alive the possibility of delivering on the Paris Agreement commitment to limit global average temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
The agreement, adopted on Wednesday morning, came as a majority of the countries participating in the negotiations supported the phasing out of fossil fuels. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the successful conclusion of the COP28 conference in a statement and thanked Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra and his team for their efforts.
“COP28 is a perfect example of European cooperation, coordination and leadership,” she said. “It is also a powerful demonstration of the value of multilateralism in tackling our planet's biggest challenges.”
COP28 concludes the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement. According to the Commission’s press release, all Parties (participating countries at the conference) have committed to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. “This gives powerful momentum to the transition away from fossil fuels.”
There is also an agreement to tackle methane emissions and other non-CO2 emissions in this decade and to phase out as soon as possible inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or the just transition.
What was left out
The issue of methane emissions will be a challenge for the EU. In the internal discussion in the EU ahead of COP28, the co-legislators (the Council and the Parliament) agreed to exclude emissions from cattle farming from the scope of the Industrial Emissions Directive. Methane in cattle farming is the biggest source of methane emissions in agriculture.
The Commission deemed it too early to analyse the pros and cons of the of the COP agreement but expressed satisfaction about the agreement's phrasing to 'transition away from fuel fuels', rather than phase out fossil fuels. “We have a final agreement with different words that mean the same,” a Commission spokesperson stated at the daily press conference in Brussels on Wednesday.
He explained that the agreement was adopted after negotiating with all 190 countries to settle on an acceptable text. “All EU Member States are satisfied that the final text on the transition away of fossil fuels is in line with the negotiating mandate which refers to the phasing out of fossil fuels.”
As to whether the UAE and other oil-producing countries are on board, the spokesperson said simply that “The document has been agreed by all parties and they need now to implement it in their national policies.”
However E3G, a climate change think tank, acknowledged that "There are gaps – especially on finance for adaptation – and loopholes." Alex Scott, programme lead at E3G, said that "the ultimate direction of travel is clear: the fossil fuel era is ending." He added that "The proof will be in the delivery - in countries’ next climate plans due by 2025."
Still on track for Paris?
Even if the oil-producing countries continue to invest in extracting fossil fuels, they would have a problem in selling the fuels to the rest of the world if demand dries up due to the commitment.
The EU and many other countries have stated their determination to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The EU is a global leader in climate action and is committed to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.
Is that enough in light of the COP28 agreement? “The target was based on best available scientific input and aligned with the pathway that the EU needs to take in view of its current share of 7 % global emissions,” the spokesperson replied. The EU is also starting preparatory work on emission reduction targets for 2035 but sees no need to reconsider the target for 2030.
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In the final agreement, the Parties noted that the global stocktake of the situation recognizes that science indicates global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, to limit global warming to 1.5°C. But it noted that the Parties are off track when it comes to meeting their Paris Agreement goals.
As a consequence, the Parties agreed on a pathway to get back on track, including through a process to align national targets and measures with the Paris Agreement. They should submit their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for 2035 by COP30, two years from now.
For the full of text of the final agreement, click here. Paragraph 28 calls on the Parties to “contribute to a number of global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches”. The actions are not always precise or timed, giving some leeway to the Parties.
List of actions
- Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
- Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power;
- Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century;
- Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;
- Accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production;
- Accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030;
- Accelerating the reduction of emissions from road transport on a range of pathways, including through development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero and low-emission vehicles;
- Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible;
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
