The number of people who passed away in 2023 in Belgium was lower than predicted for the first time since 2014. The biggest decrease in deaths was recorded in the capital.
Belgium recorded around 111,300 deaths in 2023, about 5,000 fewer deaths than 2022, or a 4.3% decline, figures from the Belgian statistics office Statbel showed on Thursday. However, when comparing with a wider reference period (the average for 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022, excluding 2020 because the pandemic weighed heavily on the death rate), 700 fewer deaths (a 0.6% decrease) were recorded.
National Health Institute Sciensano also published its statistics on deaths on Thursday but recorded a total of 110,334 deaths, a difference that can be explained by methodological differences (for example, Sciensano does not include deaths abroad). It has predicted 113,106 deaths for 2023.
This means there were fewer deaths (2,772) than predicted, making 2023 a so-called "under-mortality year" (as opposed to a year with excess mortality). The last time this phenomenon was observed at the level of the entire Belgian population was in 2014. The mortality rate (939 deaths per 100,000 population) is also at its lowest in ten years.
"Unlike previous years, factors that increase the risk of death (extreme temperatures, air pollution, infectious diseases) were much less present in 2023," Sciensano noted. The fact that more vulnerable people had already died during the pandemic also "undoubtedly contributed to the under-mortality".
Regional differences
The decrease in the number of deaths between the broader reference period and 2023 was recorded in the Brussels-Capital Region (-3.2%) and the Walloon Region (-1.6%). The Flemish region, on the other hand, saw an increase of 0.3%, which can be explained by its population structure.
"In 2023, Flanders had the largest proportion of people over 85, followed by Wallonia and then Brussels," Statbel noted. Compared to 2022, the drop in deaths was lowest in Brussels (3.3%), followed by 4.2% in Flanders and 4.7% in Wallonia.
However, Brussels was the only region where the observed number of deaths was higher than the predicted number (Sciensano expected there to be 8,152 but there were 213 more in the total population). This was mainly the case in women and people aged 85 and over.
Over the entire population in Flanders and Wallonia, this figure was lower. The number of deaths among all age groups across Belgium decreased, with the exception of those over 85. Again this can be explained by the changing population structure, as the number of over-85s has risen for several years (6.8% since 2018).
