A new poll has shown that Flemish nationalist and N-VA leader Bart De Wever is the preferred next Prime Minister of Belgium.
An exclusive poll conducted by HLN and VTM NEWS in collaboration with iVOX, asked 1,000 Flemings about the Belgian Government formation talks, now ongoing for 154 days.
A majority of Flemish people want the so-called ‘Arizona coalition’ parties to successfully negotiate a government deal and for Bart De Wever (N-VA) to become PM.
In the question: After the negotiations, Bart De Wever should become Prime Minister of the next Federal Government, a large majority (57.7%) consider him suitable and agreed. Only a quarter (27.6%) believe he is not fit for the role.
As lead government formator, De Wever is due to report back to the Belgian King this Tuesday to update the monarch on his progress in the negotiations. King Philippe refused last week the N-VA chief's resignation to lead talks, affording him more. But it remains unclear what De Wever will report.
Negotiations recently stalled due to disagreements by Vooruit on N-VA's socio-economic proposals. The Flemish socialists Vooruit are the party furthest to the left among the possible coalition parties. They want a fairer redistribution of the socio-economic burden than the proposal brought by De Wever to the negotiating table.
"The fundamental issue is that Vooruit believes wealthy people should pay more, while MR insists that there are already enough taxes," Vooruit's former leader, Vande Lanotte, said on Sunday on Flemish TV. "This issue needs to be resolved first," he said. Yet he still hopes De Wever can continue as lead formator.
Vooruit vs Bouchez
In the survey, no less than 57.7% of respondents said that Vooruit should continue negotiations on the formation of a Federal Government. Only 25.5% think the party should definitively quit the table.
There has been talk of replacing them with Open VLD, however this would give the government a small majority after the Flemish liberals’ underwhelming results in June’s elections.
Vooruit's Conner Rousseau leaves after a meeting to discuss a possible coalition for the Federal Government, on Friday 30 August 2024 in Brussels. Credit: Belga / Nicolas Maeterlinck
Yet a majority of Flemish respondents did not understand why Vooruit pulled out of talks. Of the Flemish people polled, 46.1% said they did not understand Vooruit pulling out of talks, while 35.4% say they did. Other respondents had no opinion on this.
"Opinions on this are somewhat divided," political scientist Carl Devos (Ghent University) told HLN. He argued that Vooruit have more to lose by not being at the negotiating table, yet without them, the socialists know there will be no Federal Government before the end of the year.
However, it is not just Vooruit who Flemings think are blocking the formation. The survey shows that 53% think that MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez should make more concessions to make Arizona (with N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR and Les Engagés) possible again, while 21.2% disagree. Bouchez and Vooruit leader Conner Rousseau are known not to enjoy the warmest relations.
MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez and Les Engagés' leader Maxime Prévot. Credit: Belga/Eric Lalmand
"Bouchez is blocking the concessions that Vooruit are asking for to come back to the table, because he would rather govern with Open VLD," Devos added. The MR leader believes his party faired better in June’s results, so therefore has the right to block concessions. De Wever will need to convince Bouchez if Arizona is to happen before the end of the year, the UGent expert added.
Either way, a broad majority (66.1%) believes that further negotiations are needed to reach a detailed and clear agreement. Most think that is better than quickly forming a government. The same was found for De Wever should continue to lead the negotiations (60.2% agree, with 22% disagree).
Over a quarter (27.7 %) of agreed that, if current negotiations fell through completely, a coalition without a majority on the Flemish side would be acceptable. However, the vast majority (55%) of Flemings disagreed with this.
