After revelling in an Indian summer that extended to the start of October, northern Europe turned swiftly to winter mode this past week. Not only visible in the heavy coats going where just days earlier t-shirts sufficed, the drop in temperatures was clear to see in the continent's natural gas consumption which leapt to levels not seen since April.
On Monday, I asked whether we are on course for another energy crunch, a question we are all asking despite government assurances that Europe is in a far stronger position than last year. Whilst it is true that we are much better prepared, the fragility of energy markets remains. Current developments on the peripheries of Europe cast doubt over the security of supply chains as key commodities are weaponized to gain geopolitical advantage.
To this end, the EU has made a major push to replenish LNG stocks in the hope of building a buffer during the colder months – efforts that have so far been successful as it was revealed this week that reserves are 98% full. With capacity this year 20% greater than last, Europe's Energy Commissioner highlighted that gas prices are almost ten times less than this time last year.
Though cause for celebration, experts caution against complacency. Just as this last week might have had us nudging the thermostat earlier than we would have wanted, last winter we were blessed with milder temperatures. This undoubtedly made it easier to practice energy-conscious habits, saving where we could without a glacial chill forcing our hand.
Some analysts warn that with energy prices now lower we might be tempted to be a bit less vigilant than last year and burn through reserves before winter is through. Already this week the Dutch electricity network was maxing out, a sign that we might be limited by infrastructure as well as our wallets.
Moreover, it is doubtful that governments would be so willing to dig deep to shield consumers from the pangs of a fresh surge in prices. In Belgium, the Federal Government has been obliged to make significant spending cuts as it struggles to bring its budget within EU stipulations ahead of next year's elections.
These are just some of the realities Europe must weigh up as we move into winter. And though so much is beyond the influence of individuals, we can at least approach the coming months with a knowledge of what's at stake and plan accordingly. Even small investments – such as plug-in heaters – can be the difference between bitter and bearable.
Are you ready for winter? Let @Orlando_tbt know.
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