Belgium’s electricity production capacity will be high this winter, according to the winter report by the European Association of Transmission System Operators (ENTSO-E) published on Friday.
Belgium's high-voltage grid operator Elia confirmed that the outlook for winter is reassuring but noted that if Doel 4 nuclear power plant remains out of service, more electricity will be needed, which could push prices up. The operator doesn't expect any power outages from December to February and estimates that "under normal market conditions, Belgium should have a limited need for electricity imports (less than 1 gigawatt)".
The organisation highlights the situation at Doel 4, where an inspection in late September revealed damage to the nuclear reactor’s outer shell. Doel 4 is due to keep operating until 2035. Its restart has been postponed to the end of November to allow for more detailed assessment. If the unit is not available during winter, Belgium's electricity supply is at greater risk, especially if other unforeseen capacity reductions arise or the country experiences especially cold temperatures.
Low renewable energy production (from low winds) would increase the need for imports. A combination of these factors could require Belgium's electricity imports rising further. However, Elia stated that the ENTSO-E analyses are “reassuring” for this winter.
“Under normal conditions (average consumption, average wind energy production, and average unavailability of production units), Belgium can meet winter energy demand,” the operator stated. In extreme conditions due to a combination of factors, a more significant import shortfall is expected but Elia believes this remains “manageable.” The company also watches closely how nuclear plants in France are running.
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Whilst the leading assumption is that Doel 4 will reconnect to the grid in early December, the scenario where the plant remains unavailable for longer still gives a “reassuring message,” Elia says. “We see no immediate problems for supply security. However, there will be a greater need for imports, possibly leading to higher prices,” warns the operator.
Engie, the energy producer and supplier, currently has no updates regarding Doel 4. The company expects the plant to restart at the end of November, according to its spokesperson.
