This Friday marks day 166 of Belgium's Federal Government formations and formator Bart De Wever (N-VA) has one more weekend to make significant progress in negotiations before he has to report back to the King.
The five parties hoping to form a Federal Government – N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR and Les Engagés – returned to the negotiating table on Monday 18 November. This was progress in itself as talks had previously collapsed when the Flemish socialists of Vooruit walked out of discussions, arguing that the proposals on the table leaned too much to the right. They were frustrated that a greater burden was not put on the most wealthy in the effort to stabilise public finances.
At the start of the week however, the socialists rejoined talks after accepting De Wever's ultimate proposal, which Vooruit said "finally contained openings" for a greater contribution to be made by the biggest earners. Since then the five parties have held conclaves in complete discretion.
De Wever is driving for an agreement and wants to negotiate six days a week to ensure the country's budget for 2025 can still be approved before the end of the year. He is meeting the King on Monday 25 November. If the talks do not collapse again over the weekend, his assignment is expected to be extended so negotiations can continue.
Future debt
Outgoing Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden (CD&V) believes a full-fledged budget for the end of the year "must be possible," she told Belga News Agency earlier this week. "If we continue to work very hard, there are still quite a few weeks that we can fill usefully before the end of the year. We must not waste any time. Every day that we have not put the budget in order creates debts for future generations."
Still, critics say the possibility of approving the budget in time seems slim, even if negotiations continue during the end-of-year holidays. But it is difficult to gauge progress as the discussions take place behind closed doors and all partners are not engaging with the media.
Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden and Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. Credit: Belga / Nicolas Maeterlinck
If a budget agreement is not found in time, all government administrations will have to continue on a temporary rhythm of so-called "provisional twelfths" next year. This means that every month, the Federal Government will only be able to spend one-twelfth of its total expenditure for 2024 – allowing it to still meet key costs, such as wages or paying invoices.
This would also mean that certain (fiscal) reforms will not be implemented in time and will therefore be delayed another year.
Preparations have started: outgoing Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (Open VLD) and his seven Deputy Prime Ministers will meet to discuss this on Monday. De Croo is working on the adoption of provisional twelfths for the first three months of 2025, in consultation with De Wever. The mechanism would then end as soon as the new government is installed.
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This must then be approved by the Council of Ministers and passed on to the Council of State before it can be passed on to Parliament, which is holding its last plenary meeting of the Chamber on 19 December.
If no new government is ready to draw up a budget on 29 November (four days after the deadline King Philippe gave De Wever to find an agreement), De Croo will continue with these provisional twelfths.
