Belgium's economy is moderately reliant on the United States and China for importing and exporting strategic goods, according to a study by the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB).
The FPB outlined in its study that trust in the international supply of goods has suffered in recent years. This is predominantly due to natural disasters, the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. It said that many countries are trying to reduce their dependence on trading partners, given the potential risk if those international supply chains are disrupted.
Belgium depends on non-EU countries for 5-6% of the 9,000 goods it imports, which equates to about 4% of total imports. When focusing on strategic goods such as chemicals and metals, the dependency on external sources is between 1-2%.
A similar trend is observed with exports, where 5-6% of Belgium's exported goods are dependent on non-EU countries. The proportion of strategic goods with high external dependency is 1%.
The FPB highlighted that Belgium is currently more reliant on the United States than China in terms of imports, but this dependency is shifting more towards China. Regarding exports, the US remains Belgium's primary trade partner.
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Over the past decade, the volume of strategic goods which Belgium imports has remained stable, while exports have significantly increased.
The FPB study suggests that a complete break in trade relations with non-EU countries would have a "relatively limited" impact on Belgium's economy.
It estimates a complete stop in imports would result in a total loss of over €4 billion in value added (2% of the manufacturing industry's value), while the value added loss from a halt in exports would be around €1 billion (0.5%).
However, indirect dependency through international supply chains remains significant for several sectors, including computer products and automobile manufacturing. In this context, the FPB said that dependence on China is particularly notable.
