While the working-age population in Belgium will remain relatively stable in the coming decades, the number of people over 67 years old will increase significantly.
A new report from the Federal Planning Bureau and national statistical service Statbel has delved into Belgium's demographic prospects, in the context of concerns over the country's ageing population.
The topic was a major point of discussion for the new Federal Government, which are bringing in major pension reforms to find a way to cut the budget costs of the ever-increasing share of people aged over 66.
"While the working-age population remains relatively stable in the new forecasts, the number of elderly people is increasing – in the coming years even more than in the past," the report said.
The new data confirms that the problem will not resolve itself in the short term. On the contrary, it will even accelerate over the next 10 years. This is reflected in a sharp increase in the dependency ratio, which represents the ratio of the population aged 67 and over to the working-age population (between 18 and 66).
In 2024, there were 28 people aged 67 and over for every 100 people aged 18 to 66, a number that will rise to 37 in 2040 and 43 in 2070. In other words, there are three to four workers for every elderly person in Belgium at the moment; by 2070 there will be just over two.
Life expectancy continues to rise
This is partly due to the increasing life expectancy: today, the life expectancy (at birth) is 84.77 years for women and 80.63 for men, on average. By 2070, life expectancy will rise by roughly five years for women (to 89.8 years) and by nearly eight years (to 88.1 years) for men.
This also means that the difference in life expectancy between men and women is decreasing significantly.
At the same time, the fertility rate remains low. The average number of children per woman stands at 1.46 in 2024. From the mid-2030s onwards, the average number of children per woman is expected to rise slightly and stabilise at around 1.6.
Therefore, the average Belgian family is also steadily getting smaller: the number now stands at an average of 2.2 people per family. In 2070, that will decrease slightly to 2.1 people per family.
People in Rue Neuve on the last Saturday in Brussels city centre, Saturday 21 December 2024. Credit: Belga/Nicolas Maeterlinck
As a whole, however, the total population in Belgium is still growing. The number of people in the country will grow by an average of 30,000 people a year – reaching 12.9 million in 2070, up from 11.7 million in 2024.
The Federal Planning Bureau projects that the population of Flanders will grow to 8 million by 2070 (up from 6.8 million in 2024), while the population in Wallonia and Brussels will remain almost stable at 3.7 million and 1.2 million, respectively.
Additionally, migration is expected to stabilise in the coming years: between now and 2070, the international migration balance (immigration minus emigration) will remain relatively stable at around 30,000 people a year, a lower level than in recent years.
Migration drives population growth
The arrival of Ukrainian refugees between 2022 and 2024 also had a noticeable effect on these figures, with thousands coming to Belgium after Russia's invasion. These refugees currently enjoy temporary protection, but this will expire in March 2026.
Still, it is not easy to hypothesise the length of stay of these migrants, as when (and if) they will return to Ukraine depends on the duration of temporary protection and their intentions to return, which depend respectively on the duration of the conflict and the post-war reconstruction.
The migration balance will remain the main driver of population growth in the coming decade, and likely even the only one from the late 2030s as the natural balance (births minus deaths) will become negative from 2038 onwards.
