Belgium's ageing population is having a significant impact on society. However, data seems to show the situation is more positive than in other European Union (EU) countries.
The median age of the EU's population reached 44.7 years in 2024. This figure has risen by 2.2 years since 2014, according to figures from EU statistical office Eurostat. However, there are significant differences per country: in Ireland, the median age is as low as 39.4, while in Italy it is 48.7 years.
The same is true for the increase in age. Ageing was most pronounced in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Slovakia (+4 years), while in Germany and Malta, the population became younger (by 0.1 and 0.7 years, respectively). Belgium was among the "top" countries, recording a rise of just 0.5 years. But what does this say about the ageing of the population?
"In a sense, you could say this means Belgium's population is ageing less rapidly than in some other countries," VUB demographer Patrick Deboosere told The Brussels Times. However, the reality is more complex.
Which factors are at play?
"We have to take various elements into account," Deboosere noted. The starting and end points are key. "There are countries where the median age is rising very fast such as Slovakia, but they had a much lower median age than the Germans [38.6 compared to 45.6 in 2014, respectively]." In 2024, the median age of Slovakia's population was 42.6, still far below that of Germany (45.5).
The population dynamics in the past ten years are almost entirely down to three aspects: the current structure of the population; the birth and mortality rates and migration; and migration.
Structure-wise, the median age of populations with a larger share of young people (such as Belgium, France, Luxembourg,...) will rise more slowly. "Even if the median age is similar, more young people (even with a low fertility rate) means the median age rises more slowly than a population with more old people because more children will be born. This has a rejuvenating effect."
The dynamic is also impacted by the difference between the number of deaths and births. "Mainly, births have the strongest bearing."
Finally, on top of these two factors, migration has a double effect. "Migration will cause the population to grow more rapidly from the offset, but will also rejuvenate," Deboosere explained.
A person migrating is typically in their 20s, at the beginning of their family expansion. Eurostat data shows around 60% of the foreign-born population was between the ages of 20 and 54, compared with 42.1% of the native-born population. "There's the effect of migration itself, but they also tend to have children fairly quickly upon arrival in a new country, giving that boost of rejuvenation or slowing down ageing."
Young Belgium?
A large part of the slowed-down ageing of the German population is due to migration, driven by the country's Willkommenskultur. "A large group of migrants entered Germany during the migrant crisis in 2015. The war in Ukraine also had an impact, as Germany took in many refugees." Both in 2016 and 2023, the median age in the country decreased by 0.1 compared to the previous year.
Belgium's age – which at 42 is much lower than that of Germany (the gap is expected to close in 2050) – is largely determined by migration. The median age increased by around 0.3 every year before the early 2000s but has since slowed.
"This is due to the migration since the late 1990s." Many people also migrated to Belgium from EU countries during the 2008-2010 crisis, because Belgium is considered a fairly important "economic growth pole" (a concentration area of fast-growing businesses) within the EU. "Many young people came to Belgium from Greece, Spain and Italy. These highly educated young people were unable to find work in their own countries at that time."
In countries without this "pull factor", such as Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, there is negative migration. "They have lost a huge amount of their population, and there we see the opposite effect. Young people leaving the country increases the median age."
Finally, Belgium's birth rate, which remained relatively high until about 2010 (around 1.8 children per woman), also played a key role. "Meanwhile, Germany, Spain and Portugal experienced a long period of low fertility. This means the share of young people – considered the foundation – is narrower, it causes a shrinking effect at the bottom of the population pyramid." This explains why the share of children between 0 and 14 and people aged 15 to 24 are much smaller.
Justified concerns?
While Deboosere is sure the median age in Belgium will continue to rise, it is unclear by how much. The fertility rate has been decreasing since 2010 and reached its lowest level in 30 years in 2024. This is due to young people's trust in the future dropping due to various crises, creating an unfavourable environment for family expansion.
"Even if there is a desire to have children, the existing infrastructure and support from authorities, like childcare and schools, is also key to ensure it is practically possible. One of the explanations for why the birth rate in Italy and Spain is so low is because childcare was very poorly organised, or even virtually non-existent."
However, the infrastructure has not kept up with the rising number of children, and more young women want to have their own careers. "This will likely have a more negative effect in the future."
Finally, people are waiting much longer to start expanding their families, and the longer women wait, the less likely they are to have children at all.
