As the British health services are sounding the alarm about the so-called "super flu" that is circulating in the United Kingdom at the moment, should Belgium be worried?
The number of flu cases in the UK reached a record high for this time of year. In one week, they rose by 55%, with an average of 2,660 patients per day ending up in hospital last week. In Belgium, the number of cases is rising as well.
"Flu season usually does not start until late December or early January, but we are seeing that it has already begun a month earlier in the UK. This is likely due to the new variant," virologist Steven Van Gucht told The Brussels Times.
However, he deplored the use of the term "super flu" to describe what is happening; there is no such thing, he stressed. "It is a term used to frighten people, which is unnecessary. Influenza is already a serious condition in itself."
Nothing unusual
Still, the new variant of the H3N2 influenza virus spreads more easily and therefore leads to earlier outbreaks, Van Gucht explained.
Previously, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) warned of a new flu variant. Because of this variant, the flu is already on the rise in some countries – faster than in other years.
"The H3N2 virus develops a new variant every three or so years, so there is nothing unusual about that," he said. "But as a result, we are seeing an earlier than normal flu season in several countries, including the UK, Spain and Japan."
However, the UK is not speaking of an exceptionally high number of flu cases at the moment; last year's peak has not yet been reached. "People are understandably concerned because the numbers are still rising, and the end-of-year celebrations are still to come," Van Gucht said.
"Christmas and New Year's Eve are usually catalysts for the flu. So where will we end up this year? We do not know."
Credit: Canva
Meanwhile, Belgium is only at the very beginning of its flu season. Cases are going up, but the new variant was identified weeks ago and flu activity remains fairly low for the moment, according to Belgium's national health institute Sciensano.
"We may exceed the threshold and start speaking of a flu epidemic within a week or two. But even if that is the case, that would actually be quite normal. Last year, it was also mid-December," he said. "For the moment, we are not seeing anything unusual or exceptional."
Still, the country should expect a "severe" flu season in the coming weeks and months, according to Van Gucht. "This new variant does not make people any more ill than the previous ones – the flu cases are actually quite typical – but it does spread faster, meaning more people will fall ill."
Get vaccinated
This is the case because only half of the people in the risk groups (mainly people over 65 years old) get vaccinated – there is a good chance that we will see more visits to the GP this year. "So for those who have not done so yet, there is still time to get your flu jab. We are only at the very beginning; the season has yet to start."
This is unfortunate, because our flu vaccine is less effective against the new variant. "There is a 30% lower risk of hospitalisation among people who have been vaccinated among over-65s. This is on the lower end, because our vaccine is created around February, so the flu still has months to mutate. Often that is not a problem, but this year it is."
"While it is not full protection – a vaccine never is – a 30% risk reduction is still quite significant. It is the best thing you can do; there is no other measure that has as much effect," Van Gucht said.
