With energy suppliers adjusting their tariffs on 1 April, energy prices in Belgium are expected to soar due to the war in Iran – with some experts warning that a 35% price rise is not out of the question.
While the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran at the end of February did not have an effect on energy prices in Belgium this month, that is set to change as energy suppliers are adjusting their rates on the first day of a new month.
Energy suppliers normally submit new price lists on the first day of a new month, which they then stick to for a whole month. However, they are not obliged to do so; Mega and Octa+, for example, have already adjusted their prices this month.
The other energy suppliers have not yet adjusted their prices in March and are therefore still on the "pre-war" rates, which are significantly lower than the gas prices expected for April.
According to a survey among energy suppliers conducted by Het Laatste Nieuws, an average price rise of 35% is on the horizon.
'Don't panic'
While consumer protection organisation Testachats agreed that a significant price hike is indeed to be expected, they stressed that there is currently no definite information available about the extent of the rise.
"We do not have access to the tariff schedules, and we will not see them until 1 April. So we are not making any statements about the scale of the increase at the moment, as we do not have any definite information yet," Testachats spokesperson Ortwin Huysmans told The Brussels Times.
The current gas price on the wholesale market fluctuates between €55/MWh and €60/MWh – considerably higher than last year, but still far from the extreme levels seen during the previous energy crisis.
Additionally, most people's gas consumption will also start slowing down somewhat: well into spring, not much gas will be used in the coming months. As a result, the real impact will not be felt until winter.
Credit: Belga/ Dirk Waem
People with fixed-term contracts that were signed before April "really do not need to worry," Huysmans said. "Their energy price is fixed for one, two or three years – the supply shock caused by the Iran war will have no effect."
Those on variable energy contracts, on the other hand, may well feel the pinch of the rising prices. However, gas and electricity prices are currently still nowhere near the record levels seen during the energy crisis of 2022–2023.
Additionally, in the coming spring and summer months, gas consumption will also be lower. "So we say: don’t panic," Huysmans stressed.
Those on variable-rate contracts usually feel the effects of price rises quickly, but not always in the same way: some contracts are billed monthly or quarterly.
With monthly billing, consumers will feel the increase straight away; with quarterly billing, it might take two or three months before the rise becomes clear.
The billing method also plays a role. Many households pay monthly instalments. If those instalments do not go up, consumers will only see the impact in the final bill. However, suppliers might already increase those instalments to avoid people getting a very unpleasant surprise when they receive their end-of-year bill.
Finally, consumption also determines how significant a price rise is, particularly with gas.
Act quickly
For those on a variable contract who want absolute certainty and are very concerned about potential price rises, Testachats recommends switching to a fixed-term contract this month (which means: today).
A new energy contract only comes into effect within 21 days after signing, but the date on which the new contract with a new energy supplier is signed is the date that counts – meaning a contract signed on the last day of March will still guarantee pre-war rates.
"You need to act quickly," he said. "March prices for fixed-term contracts are still low, except for with suppliers Octa+ and Mega, which have adjusted their price lists for fixed-term contracts during the course of the month."
