Belgium's politicians are clashing over the best way to plug the country's "budgetary black hole" amid pressure to meet the European Union's tight spending benchmarks.
To meet the benchmarks, Belgium's Federal Government will need to find a further €7.7 billion by 2029, according to the long-awaited Monitoring Committee report.
According to the monitoring committee, which brings together senior civil servants tasked with overseeing the budget, the federal budget deficit will reach €25.68 billion, or 3.9% of GDP, by the end of 2026.
Additionally, the report speaks of a nearly €40 billion budget deficit by 2029, the final year of the legislature. By 2031, it is projected to increase further to €44 billion, or 5.7% of GDP.
"That is alarming. It is no longer an abyss, it is a gigantic budgetary black hole," said Paul Magnette, leader of the French-speaking socialists (PS) on RTBF on Wednesday.
"It was a budget built on sand, and on figures that had absolutely no basis in reality – knock-on effects and savings that we can clearly see are not materialising," he said.
'No alternative'?
The previous Monitoring Committee's report was published in March. That report was not exactly rosy, but it did not yet take into account the impact of the war in the Middle East. As a result, it was inevitable that the figures would be even worse now.
Just a few months ago, a deficit of 4.9% of GDP was forecast for the final year of the parliamentary term in 2029. Now, this is expected to rise to 5.2% of GDP.
The Monitoring Committee attributes this deterioration to a combination of a rising primary deficit and a significant increase in interest expenditure.
Prime Minister Bart De Wever (N-VA). Thursday 28 May 2026. Credit: Belga/Jonas Roosens
In recent weeks, however, the Federal Government has been unable to make any major decisions: various parties are holding each other hostage over issues that are completely unrelated.
Budgetary proposals are being linked to controversial ethical dossiers such as the extension of the abortion deadline or relaxing euthanasia rules, the recognition of Palestine and more flexible labour rights on working hours.
For Prime Minister Bart De Wever (N-VA), the report proves that the government must pull out all the stops to close the gap. "There is no alternative," he stressed.
De Wever added that he realises that the challenge outlined in the report is particularly daunting, but it comes as no surprise. "The unforgiving geopolitical context had already forced the government to plan for this worst-case scenario. It is now a matter of taking our responsibility."
A National Day deal?
This way of framing the lack of alternatives to the current budget cuts, however, is at the heart of Magnette's criticism.
"De Wever keeps saying there is no alternative and that the only possible policy is austerity," he said. "But when everything is going up except wages, when billions in savings are being made at the expense of pensioners, it is the economy that is being destroyed."
He added that even the head of the FEB business federation called some of De Wever's measures "detrimental to competitiveness", arguing that the government is weakening both purchasing power and businesses.
With the parliamentary summer recess (which starts on 21 July) just two weeks away, governing parties are not keen to make big decisions, especially if they require a great deal of give and take.
So far, De Wever has limited himself to bilateral talks with his deputy prime ministers, De Standaard reports. Unless he has a firm basis for actually reaching an agreement, it seems unlikely that he will step up the pace.
The 21 July summer deadline for a budgetary agreement is one the government set itself, the official deadline is 15 October – the date by which next year’s budget must be tabled.
