While most of Belgium will see some sun at the start of this week, temperatures will stay chilly with more rain to come later in the week – dashing the hopes that many were nurturing for an overdue start of spring.
Forecasts have been changing for the worse, with the coming weekend initially predicted to be warm and sunny but now cold and wet throughout. Many in Belgium asking when conditions will (consistently) improve – perhaps thinking back to warmer periods around the same time last year.
But Dirk Hostens, a meteorologist at the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI), reminds us that changeable weather is nothing unusual, not least in Belgium. "The weather is often volatile in spring. During the spring months, the temperature difference between the northern hemisphere and the southern hemisphere is considerable," he told The Brussels Times.
Hostens explained much is down to the jet stream – a strong wind that circles the northern pole from west to east at an altitude of 10 km – losing energy. "This causes it to meander more, making its position more difficult to determine than during winter."
An unusually normal spring
It is true that spring this year has been colder than in previous springs: the last time it took so long to warm up was in 2016; the country experienced its second-driest spring ever in 2022. But it isn't necessarily chillier than expected in April.
"The springs in recent years have been unusually warm and dry, mostly due to a blocking high-pressure area." Last spring, these systems repeatedly positioned themselves over the country, literally forming a "blockade" and diverting disturbances with showers.
Last Easter the weather was considerably warmer than this year. Credit: Belga/ James Arthur Gekiere
Currently, a high-pressure area over the Atlantic and low-pressure areas over the continent (which warm faster) have resulted in northern winds in Belgium (compared to more south-westerly wind in other seasons), bringing a cooler and often wetter weather type.
Warm weather not on the cards
While the mercury will rise to 15°C in the centre of Belgium on Wednesday, temperatures will fall to 10°C on Wednesday and even 7°C in the southeast, with a chance of melting snow in the High Fens.
From Saturday, the high-pressure area will likely dissipate, bringing warmer air but also rain or showers. Temperatures over the weekend and at the start of next week will be low, with polar air sitting above Western Europe. Temperatures at the ground level will drop to a meagre 10°C and even 5°C in the Ardennes.
For the time being we will have to wait for stable weather, though Hostens does call attention to the "considerably warmer" temperatures. By the end of April, there again seems to be a supply of "softer air" while in early May, "the strength of the sun will already be very high."
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In terms of hours of sunshine, Belgium is much below its average for this month. "So far, we have recorded around 80 hours of sunshine in Uccle this April. With the rather cloudy outlook, we will most likely not reach the 170 hours of sunshine we normally get in April," Hostens concluded.
