As expected, the EU announced on Tuesday a target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels by 2040 – a move that intends to reassure the industry sector and appease farmers, who pushed against previous environmental legislation.
Almost two weeks ago, the climate ministers of 11 EU countries published a letter to the Commission calling for an "ambitious climate target" for 2040. The signatories highlighted the need to "send a strong political signal that the EU will lead by example to convince other large emitters to follow suit to ensure the necessary contributions to keep 1.5 °C alive before COP30."
The letter making the case for more stringent measures came as the Commission was poised to propose a new target. Already within the EU's Fit For 55 framework, the bloc is aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Commissioner for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra called the interim target "a message to our partners around the world that Europe continues to lead the way in global climate ambition."
The proposal is not legally binding until it has been discussed by EU leaders, with a preliminary decision on the final target expected at the June EU summit. The legislative proposal will then be made by the next Commission, after the European elections, before it is agreed upon with the European Parliament and the Member States.
Fossil fuel cognitive dissonance
The EU has already reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 33% in 2022, compared to 1990 levels. But experts warned that this doesn't go far enough, highlighting that 2023 was the warmest year in human history. The proposed 2040 target falls short of recommendations by the EU’s Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.
Moreover, a full phase-out of fossil fuels is missing from the proposal, despite experts stressing that this is key to hopes for a structural reduction. Greenpeace campaigner Silvia Pastorelli likened the omission to "a target to prevent lung cancer without any plan to end smoking." It's a view that follows scientific consensus, which finds that maintaining a fossil fuel economy whilst keeping to climate objectives is an example of cognitive dissonance.
The NGO stressed: "It’s painfully obvious that the EU won’t hit even its targets without an end to coal, oil and gas. The EU Commission must acknowledge that."
But whilst the latest proposal has drawn criticism from environmental groups, it comes in the context of strong rebellion from conservative voices in Europe which fear that previously announced measures will drive down EU productivity and decimate industry within the bloc. Tuesday's announcement came with clear concessions to sceptics who had challenged previous policies, such as the phase-out of combustion engines and the Nature Restoration Law.
However, those pushing for more ambitious measures have highlighted that the proposal leaves the door open to polluting activities by allowing for carbon capture and absorption as a means of offsetting emissions. They argue that there should instead be separate targets for carbon capture so that polluting activities are kept to a minimum.
'Parallel world'
The proposals have also triggered political tensions at a national level: while Belgium's Federal Government welcomed new climate targets, Flanders' Environment Minister Zuhal Demir denounced them and has formally asked the Commission to suspend discussions on the 2040 targets and "focus on the much work on the shelf today to fulfil previous commitments".
"The European train thunders on in its parallel world, further and further from what is feasible. That our Federal Government also supports this extra climate scoop on top, at a time when both farmers and families are struggling, is incomprehensible," Demir said.
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By contrast, the Environment Minister for Wallonia Céline Tellier lambasted the conservative faction of European lawmakers for "sacrificing public and environmental health to free market concerns."
The draft also stated that agriculture would need to cut non-CO2 emissions by 30% by 2040 (compared to 2015 levels). But given the sensitivity that recently erupted in this sector, this may be scrapped. The European Commission already made other concessions to the farmers last week, including postponing the introduction of the rule requiring farmers to leave 4% of their arable land fallow.
