Real estate prices in areas affected by shootings in Brussels have continued to rise despite the threat of violence, simply because supply is so low and demand is so high.
A spate of shootings in recent weeks has rattled Brussels. Last weekend, two consecutive shootings in Laeken and Saint-Josse-ten-Noode brought the 2024 tally to 21 shootings, in comparison with 85 in 2022 and 108 in 2023.
The violence – often attributed to feuds between drug trafficking gangs – has prompted calls for increased security across the capital. However, for the moment, real estate prices have remained much the same despite the stir the shootings have caused.
Even Saint-Gilles has maintained its coveted status despite being the site of a concentration of incidents since the beginning of the year. The commune's average rental price rose by 17% last year, and it is one of the top five most expensive areas in the country to purchase property. The figures show no sign of slowing despite local violence repeatedly making the headlines, according to real estate agents.
"I haven't heard of any customers who no longer want to buy or rent because they are afraid," Myimmo's Sébastien Mullenders, whose offices are located in the centre of Saint Gilles, told Le Soir. "People see these events as isolated incidents. They are not disrupting the market in any way."
Isolated incidents
The consensus seems to be that demand for real estate is so high that incidents making the headlines – viewed as isolated occurrences targeting individuals involved in the drug trade – are not enough of a deterrent for prospective buyers and renters.
"I believe that it would take a major upsurge in shootings for people to start hesitating, because for the time being, the areas where the shootings took place are still safe," Mullenders continued.
However, the sector is also keenly aware of how growing calls for reinforced security might alter Brussels' image as an appropriate city in which to purchase property.
Trevi CEO Kim Ruysen says the debate surrounding security must be directed in such a way that will reassure the public, otherwise there may well be a negative impact on the real estate sector. "We need to reinforce the perception that everything is under control," he noted.
'Acute housing crisis'
While housing prices fell significantly in the rest of Europe in 2023, they continued to rise in Belgium, albeit at a lower rate than in previous years (3% compared to an average of 10% between the end of 2020 and 2021). This upward trend is expected to last until the end of the year, according to Immoweb's annual report released in February.
The OECD has described the housing situation in Brussels as one in "acute" crisis. The average household income is disproportionately lower than the Region's relative wealth, and many people struggle to get onto the property ladder as a result.
60% of Brussels' residents are renters, and rent prices rose by 20% between 2004 and 2018, making them markedly higher than the 3.3% OECD average.
