From rockfalls to ice avalanches, climate change is intensifying natural hazards in many places. posing particular challenges for the Alps.
This has been confirmed by a synthetic analysis conducted researchers linked to the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, WSL, and the ETH Zurich research network.
The analysis, based on the results more than 300 scientific studies done over the last three decades, was jointly coordinated by permafrost expert Samuel Weber and glaciologist Mylène Jacquemart as part of the WSL's Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM) programme.
According to the studies, rockfalls have increased in high mountain regions in recent decades: as a result of climate change, the permafrost is melting and glaciers are retreating, which weakens the rock and encourages the detachment of stones and rock masses.
There has also been a sharp increase in the amount of heavy precipitation likely to trigger mudslides, along with increased activity above the tree line and in areas not previously affected.
While the disappearance of glaciers is leading to fewer ice avalanches, regional observations suggest that large-scale ones have become more frequent since the start of the millennium.
If global warming continues, the researchers predict that snow and ice avalanches will be rarer by the end of the 21st century. At the same time, permafrost continues to warm, even at high altitudes. Rockfalls, debris flows and landslides are therefore expected to be more frequent, according to the study.
