On the third-year mark of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Foreign Affairs Council, chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, will meet in Brussels on Monday. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is one of the main points on the agenda.
Ahead of the meeting, the 16th package of sanctions against Russia was adopted last Wednesday by the Committee of the Permanent Representatives of the EU Member States (Coreper) and will be approved by the EU foreign ministers at the Council meeting. A diplomatic source commented that the decision sends a clear signal that the EU continues supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia.
However, the EU is alone in its unwavering support for Ukraine. What used to be a united American-European front in support of Ukraine against Russia’s war of aggression has fallen apart since Donald Trump became US president for the second time. Ukraine and the EU were not even invited to the first peace talks that took place last week in Riyad, Saudi Arabia, between the US and Russia.
The writing was already on the wall before the meeting in Riyad. The US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, started saying at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels (12 February) that the American President intends to end the war by diplomacy and bringing both Russia and Ukraine to the table.
Ukraine and the EU in shock
“We will only end this devastating war – and establish a durable peace – by coupling allied strength with a realistic assessment of the battlefield.” The EU shares his opinion that “a durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again.”
“But we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective,” he added. “The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement. Instead, any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops.”
For Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, this must have come as a cold shower. Until recently, he counted on NATO. When he presented Ukraine’s “victory plan” at the European Council meeting last October he said that a majority of EU’s Member States supported the plan. “The first point in the plan is a request to NATO to strengthen our people by assurances about NATO membership,” he said.
“We need to feel that we aren’t alone. Being in NATO is a security umbrella.” Zelensky regards NATO membership as only fair to Ukraine after it gave up its nuclear arsenal in the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 in exchange for security guaranties for its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Those guarantees were violated by Russia. “NATO membership is a preventive step,” he explained.
Weapons and investments in Ukraine are also important parts of the victory plan. “We must also prevent Russia from capturing our raw materials.” Now Trump blackmails Ukraine and demands Ukraine’s raw materials, such as rare earth elements. He claims that Ukraine owes the US the money for the support it was given during the Biden administration.
Ukraine and the EU were also shocked when listening to US Vice-President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference. Vance questioned the shared democratic values of the transatlantic relationship and did not mention Russia’s aggression as a threat to Europe. Instead, he lambasted the EU for countering disinformation and election manipulation.
The EU is of the opinion that Ukraine should be strong and negotiate from a strong position in the coming peace talks with Russia. But this position has already been undermined before the start of any talks when the US announced that it believes that NATO membership for Ukraine is not a realistic outcome of a peace settlement.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, March 2022, credit: Ukrainian government
Trump’s Russian narrative
The US’ sudden anti-Ukrainian turn did not end with this. While his ministers and envoys have used diplomatic language in their meetings with EU leaders, the American president escalated his rhetoric against Ukraine last week. Trump echoed a Russian narrative as if he is supporting Kremlin in the coming peace talks. Russia was surprised but satisfied that the US has adopted its position.
The unpredictable American president called Zelensky a “dictator without elections” and falsely accused Ukraine of starting the war. In fact, President Zelensky was legitimately elected in free, fair and democratic elections, which hardly can be said about Putin. It is not possible to hold elections under martial law because of the war but Zelensky still enjoys more support than Trump in the US.
When EU leaders met Trump’s representatives, they sounded positive and even tweeted they had good meetings with them despite their differences of opinions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted on 18 February that she had an “important discussion” on with US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, General Keith Kellogg.
In the read-out of the meeting, she emphasized the EU's critical role in ensuring Ukraine's financial stability and defence, with a total commitment of €135 billion - more than any other ally. EU’s military assistance to Ukraine match US contributions. She also reiterated that any resolution must respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, backed by strong security guarantees.
In her own speech at the Munich Security Conference, von der Leyen argued that the EU and the US need to cooperate. “Ukraine needs peace through strength. Europe wants peace through strength. And as President Trump has made clear: the US is firmly committed to peace through strength. So, I believe that by working together, we can deliver that just and lasting peace.”
“A failed Ukraine would weaken Europe, but it would also weaken the US,” she added. “It would intensify the challenges in the Indo-Pacific and threaten our shared interests. Because what we have seen is - the Authoritarians of this world are carefully watching whether there is any impunity if you invade your neighbour and violate international borders. Or whether there are real deterrents.”
EU’s mutual defence clause
Russia considers NATO membership a threat to its security and used it as a pretext for its invasion. Is there an alternative to NATO guaranties? There is an almost forgotten clause in the EU treaties which could provide Ukraine with the security guarantees it needs without joining NATO. It would require that the Ukraine’s will join the EU and that the accession process will be accelerated.
NATO has article 5 which says that an attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all members. What Russia most fears is a Ukraine that is a member of NATO. What Ukraine most needs for its social and economic development is EU membership, sharing its European values on the rule of law, democracy, and minority rights, and being part of the internal market.
The EU has a similar mutual defence clause – article 42(7) in the Treaty on the European Union (TEU). It says that, “If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 (right of self-defence) of the United Nations Charter”.
EU membership would help Ukraine in its fight to survive as an independent and democratic country. In the past, the European Commission used to say that there is no “fast track procedure”, but this seems to have changed now. In her speech at the Munich Security Conference, von der Leyen stated that the EU will step up its work to accelerate the accession process of Ukraine to the EU.
“We have made significant progress already, but now is the time again to move mountains. My message is: you see Europe adapting, Europe stepping up, Europe making a difference – immediately.”
Asked about the defence clause, a high-level EU official replied on Friday that EU’s main priority is to strengthen Ukraine to enable it to negotiate from a position of strength once serious peace negotiations will take place.
Asked about the meetings that have taken place until now, the Commission’s spokespersons replied last week that they are part of an on-going process that have to “come together” with a view to reach a just and lasting peace. “There can be no solution for Ukraine without involving Ukraine and the EU in the peace talks. Ukraine’s security is the EU’s security.”
