The transport infrastructure across the European continent is unprepared for the impacts of climate change, according to a study led by professor Wim Thiery, affiliated with Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB).
Roads, railways, ports, airports, and inland waterways will increasingly be exposed to extreme heat, drought, forest fires, and flooding over the coming decades.
According to the study, the consequences of these changes are unpredictable. Climate extremes can not only damage Europe's transport infrastructure but also lead to delays, route closures, and prolonged disruptions to passenger and freight transport. This, in turn, puts economic activities, supply chains, and public health under pressure.
Climate models further predict an increase in heatwaves. Under a scenario roughly aligned with current climate policies and a global warming of about 3°C by 2100, the exposure of European transport infrastructure to extreme heat could be up to 30 times higher than in the historical period 1980-2009, according to the scientists.
Additionally, inland waterway transport is also at significant risk due to droughts, which are expected to affect all European inland waters by the middle of the century.
"By the end of the century, disruptions to roads and railways caused by forest fires could occur up to 26 times more frequently than in the historical climate. Exposure to flooding could locally increase up to eight times," Thiery further explains.
The study foresees little good news. Most notably, the transport infrastructure in the Mediterranean region will bear the brunt. The region is expected to experience a significant increase in both heatwaves and forest fires.
It is estimated that by the middle of the century, around 19% of European transport networks could be exposed to forest fires.
