The two-years long war in the Tigray region in Ethiopia between the central government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) ended last year with a cessation of hostilities agreement which currently seems to be on the right track towards a national dialogue on a peaceful solution of the conflict.
The short name of the agreement can be misleading since it is more than an agreement on ceasefire or cessation of hostilities. Its full name is ‘Agreement for lasting peace through a permanent cessation of hostilities’. "This moment is not the end of the peace process, but the beginning of it," said African Union special envoy and former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who led the mediation efforts.
As previously reported, the war broke out in November 2020 when the situation in Tigray, one of Ethiopia’s ten regions with a population of about 6 million, deteriorated after TPLF forces attacked a government military installation in the region. The central government considered the conflict as an internal issue and a matter of protecting Ethiopia’s constitutional order and territorial integrity.
The government launched a military operation which was supposed to be brief. The operation became a protracted armed conflict, including interference by Eritrea on the government’s side, and spread to two other regions, Afar and Amhara. The conflict reportedly claimed the lives of up to 600,000 people due to war-related violence and famine. Millions were displaced and hundreds of thousands were on the brink of famine
“The situation on the ground has never been that bad, both on military and humanitarian fronts,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said after a Foreign Affairs Council in October last year.
With changing fortunes on the battlefield, the situation took a sudden turn to the better by the signing of the Agreement between the two parties on 2 November 2022 in Pretoria, South Africa, through the mediation of the African Union (AU). Subsequently, the parties held extensive discussions on the modalities of a successful implementation of the agreement.
A few days later, in Nairobi, Kenya, they signed a declaration that contains a series of clauses on the permanent cessation of hostilities, disarmaments of Tigray combatant forces, delivery of humanitarian aid and cooperating on monitoring and verification mechanisms.
“Ethiopia has embarked on the path of peace through the Africa Union led peace process, embedded in the ethos of African solutions to African problems,” the Ethiopian government announced. Paving the way for the agreement, it showed some readiness to solve the problem by peaceful means, first by halting its military advance in Tigray and then by a declaration of a unilateral humanitarian truce.
Later in 2022, the government also took a major step by establishing a peace committee and calling for a solution under the auspices of the African Union.
Implementation on the ground
According to the Ethiopian government, access to Tigray has been fully restored and the delivery of humanitarian supplies have improved. Work has been done to resume various basic services by restoring the infrastructure damaged during the conflict. Telephone services and daily flights of Ethiopian Airlines have also resumed successfully.
The Eritrean forces have withdrawn from Ethiopia. Military commanders of Ethiopia and TPLF have met to finalise the terms of reference of the Joint Monitoring and Verification and Compliance Mechanism (MVCM). The key objective of the MVCM is to ensure the successful implementation of the Agreement, confirm compliance, and report any violations.
The military commanders have also discussed the implementation of the DDR process (Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration), one of the most essential elements in the Agreement through which TPLF combatants are supported to lay down their weapons.
The TPLF has started handing over the first round of heavy weapons to the federal government of Ethiopia in accordance with the Agreement. Military observers from different African countries attended the handing over in Agula camp, 36 kilometers from the regional capital, Mekelle. The heavy weapons from TPLF included armored tanks, artillery, rockets, and mortars.
The Agreement also prescribed the establishment of an inclusive interim administration in Tigray. Getachew Reda, an advisor to the former president of the Tigray region and spokesperson of TPLP, was appointed to Chief Administrator pending elections in the region. Following the participation of the region in the federal parliament, the designation of the TPLF as a terrorist organization has been lifted.
To boost trust between the two sides, a high-level delegation led by the speaker of Ethiopia's parliament has visited Tigray’s capital Mekelle. On 3 February, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed held his first face-to-face talks with TPLF leaders regarding the progress of the peace process. The meeting took place in Halala Kella in Southern Western Ethiopia regional state.
Reintegration of Tigray in Ethiopia
The Tigray region is one of the federated regions in Ethiopia. The signing of the Agreement on 2 November 2022 is seen by the federal government as the first step to solve the conflict by peaceful means, anchored in a political process which also includes a Transitional Justice Initiative.
The National Dialogue Commission has already started discussions based on grassroots-level participation of different sections of society across the country. Its purpose is to address all political and structural problems. The Transitional Justice Initiative has been put in place to ensure accountability, redress to victims, and national healing in the country
The National Dialogue Commission and the Transitional Justice Initiative will become fully operational in June and September 2023 respectively.
The UN Human Rights Council established already in December 2021 an International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE) with a two-fold mandate: to investigate and report on alleged violations of international human rights, humanitarian and refugee law since November 2020 and to provide advice regarding transitional justice.
The Commission’s mandate was most recently extended for a period of one year, until December 2023. It has not yet issued any report. In an oral brief in March, its chairperson, Chief Justice Muhamed Chande Othman from Tanzania, stated that “the region has witnessed a significant and so far, sustained reduction in conflict” since the signature of the Agreement.
High Representative Josep Borrell referred in his press remarks after the latest Foreign Affairs Council meeting (22 May) to EU’s ambassador in Addis Abeba who had sent him pictures of his visits to the Tigray region. “It’s a good sign of the gradual normalisation of our relations with Ethiopia based on the progress made on (our) three requests (recovery, reconstruction, reconciliation),” he said.
“The signing of the cessation of hostilities agreement represents an important step towards peace and reconciliation in Ethiopia. Here also the word “reconciliation” after an awful war with countless atrocities – it is the key word.” The reconciliation process “requires a strong leadership and a sustainable monitoring mechanism to ensure that the cessation of hostilities is respected by all sides.”
Nabila Massrali, an EU spokesperson for foreign affairs, explained on Thursday that, “The EU is gradually normalising its relations with Ethiopia based on progress made on our three asks: cessation of hostilities, including the withdrawal of Eritrean troops, unimpeded humanitarian access, and accountability for international humanitarian Law and human rights violations and abuses.
“The EU stands ready to support further progress on Ethiopia’s path towards lasting peace,” she said. “On the basis of a sustained progress on the implementation of the agreement, the EU would be ready to relaunch its regular multi-annual indicative programme for Ethiopia and to encourage International Financial Institutions to address the critical economic situation in the country.”
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
