The United States midterm elections do not seem to be turning into the major "red wave" victory predicted by the Republican Party. While the Republicans may capture the House of Representatives, the Senate seems to remain in the hands of the Democrats for now.
All ballot boxes across the US are closed and preliminary results from numerous states have already come in, but are not yet finalised as votes cast in advance or sent in via post are often counted last. Therefore, preliminary results in many states may be biased, as Democrats are more likely to vote by mail while most Republicans vote on Election Day itself.
Still, the election night was "not the night Republicans had dreamed about," The New York Times reports. "The party is doing less well than expected everywhere except Florida. Where the counting ended in Pennsylvania, (Democratic Senate candidate) John Fetterman is doing well. The Democrats have even slightly improved their chances of retaining the House."
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 (of the 100) seats in the Senate were up for contest this year, as were the governors in 36 states and the State legislators in 46 states, while races for numerous state and local offices were also held.
Very tight races
In the Senate, the Democrats currently have 48 seats, and the Republicans have 47, according to the votes that have already been counted of which the results have already been determined. While the Republicans need to flip only one seat to gain control of the Senate, the Democrats need to keep 50 seats to maintain control. In that case, the division in the Senate will remain at 50-50, with the deciding vote going to the Senate president, Democratic vice-president Kamala Harris.
The House of Representatives will likely go to the Republicans as expected, but possibly by a smaller margin than hoped for by the party: as things stand, the Republicans would get 224 seats, the Democrats 211, according to The New York Times' estimations.
As it stands, only two states are set to switch sides. Due to a win for Democratic candidate John Fetterman, Pennsylvania has already flipped from Republicans to Democrats. While votes are still being counted in Georgia, it is thought that the state could go from Democrats to Republicans with a win for Herschel Walker.
Setting the stage for 2024
Meanwhile, the Democrats have won gubernatorial elections in the three key so-called "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – thereby likely securing the protecting the right to abortion in these states.
Democratic governors are expected to block any tightening of abortion laws, now that that issue has been assigned to the states by the US Supreme Court with the overturning of Roe v Wade earlier this year. Like the President at the national level, a governor has veto power over local laws they do not like.
Additionally, the Democratic victories in these states also ease concerns about the fairness of the 2024 presidential election. The International Chair of Democrats Abroad, Candice Kerestan, last month already stressed that the outcome of these midterms would set the stage for the Presidential elections in 2024.
"Our next state and local officials are the people who will be certifying election results for at least the next two years," Kerestan told The Brussels Times last month. "What happens now will have a significant impact on what happens in 2024."
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In the 2020 Presidential elections, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all three voted for current President Joe Biden, and helped provided the Democrat with the necessary majority. Despite pressure from Donald Trump at the time, the Democratic governors of the three states defended the fairness of the election.
As the Democrats fear that Republican governors might completely flout the outcome of the next Presidential election in 2024 if it does not suit them, the party is reacting with relief now that three governors from their party will be able to oversee the 2024 ballot.
Meanwhile, Democrats and Republicans are anxiously watching Senate races in Nevada and Arizona, as well as a tight contest in Georgia. Still, it could be days before all votes are counted and the results are definite.
