Global temperatures for the past 12 months have surpassed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial reference period – the first time this has occurred. The trend looks likely to continue as 2024 already started with record-breaking temperatures in many regions.
The world experienced the warmest January on record last month, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported. An average surface air temperature of 13.14°C was recorded – 0.12°C more than in January 2020, which had previously been the warmest on record. It was 1.66°C warmer than the estimated January average for 1850-1900, the symbolic pre-industrial reference period.
"2024 starts with another record-breaking month," said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the C3S. This was felt in Europe – Spain experienced its warmest January on record since measurements began in 1961 with an average temperature of 8.4°C (2.4°C more than the usual average). The most alarming results were seen in eastern Canada and southwest Asia, where temperatures were nearly 5°C above the 1991-2020 average.
"Not only is it the warmest January on record but we have also just experienced 12 months of more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial reference period," Burgess stressed. Last year also ranked as the planet's hottest year in global records going back to 1850. It also marks the eighth warmest month on record in a row.
Effect of climate change
The El Niño weather phenomenon, which warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, has driven temperatures higher. Human activity has also played a direct role: "Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing," Burgess warned.
Despite exceeding 1.5°C in a 12-month period, the world has not yet breached the Paris Agreement target, which aims to limit warming to 2°C and preferably 1.5°C to avoid unleashing irreversible consequences. This relates to an average set over many years (periods of 10 to 20 years).
However, Burgess did stress that a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions "is the only way to stop the global temperature rise". If the 1.5°C is exceeded over a longer period as set out in the agreement, extreme weather – unprecedented storms, flooding, long periods of heat and drought – will grow more frequent and intense in the coming years.
Land and sea
European temperatures varied in January 2024, from much more than the 1991-2020 average in the south of the continent to much below average in the Nordic countries.
The month was also wetter than average in large parts of Europe, with storms hitting north- and south-western Europe, including Belgium. It was also wetter than average in western and south-eastern USA, a large region of Eurasia, south-eastern South America, southeast Africa and northern and eastern Australia.
Meanwhile, drier-than-average conditions were seen in south-eastern and northern Spain, but also in southern UK, Ireland, eastern Iceland, most of Scandinavia, part of north-western Russia, and the eastern Balkans.
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Outside Europe, these conditions were recorded across parts of western and southern North America, Canada, the Horn of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and south-central Asia. Australia and Chile saw the dry conditions contribute to wildfires that are ravaging both countries.
El Niño has started to weaken in the equatorial Pacific but Burgess warned that the marine air temperatures in general remained at an unusually high level.
The average global sea surface temperature reached 20.97°C, a record for January, 0.26°C warmer than the previous warmest January, in 2016, and the second highest value for any month, within 0.01°C of the record from August 2023 (20.98°C).
