Birthrates are falling in developed countries across the world, and Belgium is no exception. People are waiting longer to have children – and the longer women wait, the less likely they are to have children at all.
Just over 110,000 births were recorded in Belgium in 2023, the lowest level since 1942. Provisional figures for 2024 are even lower. This is due to a combination of factors, mainly that Belgians are starting to have children at an increasingly older age.
An unpublished analysis by demographer Karel Neels (University of Antwerp) showed the average age to have a first child in the country rose from 28 to 30 between 2009 and 2022, De Standaard reported.
"In 2009, almost 50% of women did not have a child by the age of 30. In the latest figures, this has risen to more than 60% of women," Neels said.
Procrastination effect
The delay that occurs at younger ages no longer seems to be compensated by changes at later ages. Put more simply: the fact that women in their 20s are increasingly delaying starting a family is only partially offset by women in their 30s.
This is largely because, from the age of 30, women's fertility declines, and the chances of becoming pregnant become smaller. While medically assisted reproduction makes up for it slightly, female thirty-somethings are encountering a limit.
"Towards the future, that might lead to childlessness increasing."
Credit: Belga
This trend threatens to be paired with a rise in unplanned or unwanted childlessness. Many women still want children after their 30th birthday, but figures show this often doesn't materialise, especially compared to women who delay less.
"Of the women who delay pregnancy until the age of 30, we expect – based on the latest figures and evolutions – that 35-40% will always remain childless," Neels said. Two-thirds of women who have no children by the age of 35 will not have them at all. "And if they do end up having a first child, this is unlikely to be followed by a second or third."
Several factors at play
The drop in the number of births is more pronounced in Brussels and Wallonia than in Flanders. In the Flemish Region, projections even show an increase in the number of births. In 2023, there were 62,338. By 2050, this may even reach 70,000.
This was also reflected in last year's demographics study by the Federal Planning Bureau which showed that from the late 2040s, population growth will only be seen in the Flemish Region.
Neels stressed that childlessness is not always a choice and that several contextual factors are at play. "The labour market does not always make it easy for young adults: the housing market with prices escalating, less stable relationships, and so on," he said.
He called for more supportive measures such as flexible parental leave, work-life balance and adequate childcare to reverse the trend.
