As the French head for the polls on Sunday, the gap between incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and far-right challenger Marine Le Pen has significantly closed.
BVA polling figures suggest that Macron will gain 20.5%-28.5% in the first round, while Le Pen will get 19%-27%.
France, BVA Opinion poll:
Voter potential Macron (LREM-RE): 20.5%-28.5% Le Pen (RN-ID): 19%-27% Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 14.5%-22% Zemmour (REC-NI): 7%-10% Pécresse (LR-EPP): 6%-10% Jadot (PÉ-G/EFA): 3%-7% ... Fieldwork: 6-7 Apr. 2022 Sample size: 1,501 ➤ https://t.co/qOzl2nSVPC pic.twitter.com/D9VXxjEGHD — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 8, 2022
Opinion polls still predict a win for Macron in the second round, but his lead isn't as comfortable as it was during the 2017 election. Back then, Macron beat Le Pen with 66% of the votes in the second round.
A Datapraxis/Yougov poll on Friday showed that in the event of the probable showdown between Macron and Le Pen in the second round, Macron would get just 51% of the votes, while Le Pen would receive 49%.
France, Datapraxis/YouGov poll:
Presidential run-off election Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-3) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+3) Macron (EC-RE): 58% Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 42% ... +/- vs. 28 - 31 March Fieldwork: 4-7 April 2022 Sample size: 1,783 ➤https://t.co/Q3N85NE2nu pic.twitter.com/zrgSdspxV8 — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 8, 2022
Even if Le Pen loses, such a close race marks a shift in French politics, with almost 50% of French voters opting for a far-right candidate.
Revamped Le Pen
Le Pen has said several times that she isn't the same candidate as she was in 2017 and since then, her team has focused on softening her image. With the rise of France's other far-right candidate Eric Zemmour, Le Pen has come across as a more palatable and less extreme candidate for a large part of the French electorate.
Yet political analyst Julien Hoez doesn't buy the change in appearance. We see pictures of her "on Instagram, holding cats and kittens and cute animals and that sort of thing before going into the Assemblée Nationale to talk about how migrants are stealing the jobs of 'real, French people'... It's a strategy that works, people like cute animals," Hoez said.
Additionally, Le Pen has honed in on the issue that is most pressing to French voters, namely purchasing power. Zemmour's focus on immigration explains why he went down in the polls, while Le Pen campaigned in the French heartlands on enacting measures to combat skyrocketing energy prices.
Unlike Zemmour, she has avoided debates about the war in Ukraine which would have likely seen her drop in the polls. She has tried distancing her ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, but "she's still quite close to Putin, even if she can't do it very publicly now, because of the situation with the genocide in Bucha," Hoez said.
Macron, too, has pointed the finger at Le Pen for her links to Putin.
Macron was late to the game
The attack was a double-edged sword for Macron who has come under fire for his visits to Russian President Vladimir Putin in an attempt to dissuade the Russian leader from the war in Ukraine, which came to nothing.
But while his visits have been fodder for the opposition, the French electorate appreciated Macron's efforts abroad. Yet those endeavours still don't see him with a comfortable lead in the polls.
Macron announced his campaign late for a presidential candidate, just at the beginning of March. Unlike Le Pen, he hasn't spent as much time on the campaign trail but held a big rally in Paris last week, visited Dijon and held a four-hour long press conference.
The French president didn't announce his campaign "for a series of reasons," said Hoez. "One of which was the Ukraine war... And the other being the wish to ensure that the French Covid-19 situation was in order so that people wouldn't avoid voting." He added that municipal elections in 2021 were low because people didn't want to get infected.
Hoez believes that the polls at this stage of the campaign are exaggerated. But with Le Pen this close to victory, it is clear that France has become more comfortable with the far-right.
