Without additional actions and efforts by the government, the aim of a "smoke-free generation 2040" in Belgium will go up in smoke, public health institute Sciensano warned, based on new projections.
Although the number of smokers in the country is declining, tobacco consumption remains the cause of many deaths each year in Belgium. The Federal Government is working to drastically reduce tobacco use among the population by 2040 and has stated its aim that no young person starts using tobacco (smoke-free generation).
To this end it has introduced measures such as a recent smoking ban in all train stations and a federal plan against tobacco consumption focussing on prevention, sales rules and higher excise duties. However new projections from Sciensano indicate that more efforts are in order to reach its goal.
"It is clear that tobacco control in Belgium requires continuous and stable investment on all possible fronts," said researcher Brecht Devleesschauwer.
Missing goals
Sciensano has been monitoring tobacco use using the national health survey since 1997. It finds that the number of daily smokers has decreased by 40% since 2018.
Today, 15.4% of Belgians still light up a cigarette every day. If the decline continues as it is, it will only fall to less than 10% by 2040 – far longer than the inter-federal target to reduce daily tobacco use to 10% by 2028.
Projections did show that the proportion of daily smokers that are women is expected to fall below 10% by 2035. But among men, this will not happen before 2040.
"The trend of smoking behaviour in our country is decreasing year after year but our projections show that this evolution alone will not get us there to reduce daily tobacco use in our country to 5% by 2040," Devleesschauwer noted.
Daily tobacco use among young people will not fall below 6% before 2040 while daily smoking among young people in the Brussels Capital Region remains high. "Without additional initiatives, the goal is only projected to succeed more than a decade later.
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The agency noted that the vast majority of daily smokers report having started between the ages of 17 and 18. A reduction in daily smoking around this age would therefore also mean an overall reduction in smoking initiation.
"However, if the ambitious policy measures from the inter-federal plan are implemented, these trends could certainly change," concluded Devleesschauwer.
