In the face of an anticipated increase in global temperatures by 2.5 to 3 degrees, the question arises: how worried should we be about this seemingly modest rise?
The United Nations Environment Agency (UNEP) recently issued a warning that the world is on track for this temperature surge, a scenario that becomes especially alarming considering the current global warming of nearly 1.5 degrees.
The implications of this impending temperature increase are more than just numerical figures; they manifest concretely in our daily lives. Despite efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the global plan has fallen short, resulting in a resurgence of emissions in recent years.
Beyond the statistical rhetoric, the consequences of a 2.5 to 3-degree rise are dire. Similar to the effects of a virus on human health, where a slight fever may go unnoticed, an increase of 2.5 to 3 degrees could plunge the world into a perilous state.
The risk lies not only in the direct effects but also in triggering self-reinforcing mechanisms, known as "feedback loops," intensifying phenomena like permafrost melting and widespread forest fires.
Belgium, in particular, faces a stark reality, experiencing a temperature rise approximately twice as fast as the global average. This could lead to an average temperature increase of 5 to 6 degrees, significantly impacting weather extremes, the prevalence of disease-carrying mosquitoes, and more frequent and intense heatwaves.
Cities, already grappling with a 5 to 10-degree Celsius difference between urban and rural areas, are projected to face amplified challenges. The phenomenon of heat islands, where urban areas absorb and radiate heat, exacerbates heatwaves and disrupts the crucial nighttime cooling process essential for human well-being.
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As global warming trends persist, Belgium's capital, Brussels, is expected to witness a threefold increase in heatwaves by 2100, lasting half as long but twice as intense. These projections emphasise the urgency for effective climate strategies.
To mitigate the impact, cities must adopt innovative measures, including the reduction of pavements, increased green spaces, green facades, water features, and even the installation of umbrellas over streets to block the sun. Structural changes, such as well-insulated homes and the creation of reflective surfaces, can offer substantial relief.
However, the challenge lies not only in physical alterations but also in adapting to new metrics. Beyond traditional temperature measurements, evaluating heat stress, considering humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation, provides a more accurate assessment of the impact on the human body.
The use of heat sensors in cities is already underway, identifying hotspots and guiding local authorities in strategic interventions such as tree planting and park creation. While larger cities are making strides, smaller municipalities face challenges in keeping pace with climate change realities, necessitating a broader, more comprehensive approach to combat future heatwaves.
In the race against rising temperatures, the imperative is clear: urgent and sustained climate efforts are necessary to secure a sustainable future for Belgium and the world.
