Espionage and counterintelligence are once again key priorities for Belgium's State Security. However, the threat of jihadist-inspired terrorism, which was at the top of the agenda several years ago, is also resurging.
At the start of every new year, Belgium's State Security (VSSE) publishes an annual report describing the main threats to the country and its challenges. It warned that in 2023, a new way of spying was materialising.
"Less than a decade ago, the threat of jihadist-inspired terrorism was the priority above all others," said Francisca Bostyn, Administrator-General ad interim at State Security. "In 2023, that picture looked completely different."
Non-systemic espionage
The report cited interference by the traditional players that come to mind when thinking of espionage: China and Russia. These countries fundamentally oppose the basic principles of Western society. Bostyn noted that, while the mass expulsion of Russian intelligence officers since the start of the war has "seriously weakened Russia's clout in Europe," it has also "prompted Russia to change the way it operates here."
The report referred to tactics which were also adopted by China, such as working with informal agents who have no official ties to the intelligence services. This poses new challenges for European intelligence services. State Security explicitly referred to the recruitment of Vlaams Belang politician Frank Creyelman, but he is not alone.
Since the beginning of this legislature, eight politicians have been the subject of investigations into espionage, extremism, organised crime or terrorist threats, according to VRT. However, not all politicians are actively involved. In one case, the politician is thought to be unaware that they are being manipulated in an espionage case.
To avoid risks, cyber activities are also being employed.
In addition to these countries trying to gain a foothold in Belgium, in part by spreading disinformation, it also faced interference from countries that "are not necessarily hostile to Belgium". These players, called non-systemic actors, develop clandestine intelligence activities in Belgium "to promote their interests". An example is the Qatargate scandal, involving Maria Arena and Marc Tarabella, both MEPs for the Socialist Party (PS).
"In short, espionage and counter-espionage are back from never quite being gone," Bostyn noted.
Terror threat still real
The agency noted a new rise in reports and files on jihadist terrorism in Belgium in the past two years. But here too, there is a break in the trend: "Centrally controlled organisations have given way to lone actors and loose-knit networks on closed chat channels," Bostyn said.
The Brussels terror attack on 16 October 2023 illustrated this, but was not an isolated case, according to the agency. It added that determining whether there is an actual risk to the country is "a particularly delicate balancing act. Any decision could potentially have very far-reaching consequences."
It is also monitoring the threat from right-wing extremist quarters and explicitly warned against the emerging phenomenon of accelerationism. This is a strategy that assumes that racial conflict will inevitably take place and that it must be accelerated through terrorist violence.
The agency noted here that more and more minors have appeared in intelligence files, adding that they seem to be increasingly younger. In some cases, they are as young as 15 years old.
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The fight against certain excesses of organised crime – which Bostyn noted is "increasingly gnawing away at our social structures" – was also cited as a new challenge for the agency service. To this end, cooperation with foreign security services is becoming increasingly important.
"Phenomena such as extremism, terrorism, espionage and meddling cannot be mastered by a country on its own," Bostyn stated. "Almost no intelligence investigation is conducted within the VSSE anymore without puzzle pieces coming from other services and – increasingly – from foreign services."
This rise in workload is mirrored in the increasing number of employees at State Security, up to 1,000 in spring 2024. It also introduced a new research model and IT environment to manage the increasing flow of information.
