The Foreign Affairs Council meets on Monday in Brussels for a brief but intensive meeting dominated by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. The EU foreign ministers will also discuss other major foreign affairs issues, such as the situation in the Middle East, Iran, Syria and EU – US relations, followed by a conference on Syria in the afternoon.
The meeting is chaired by Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Andrii Sybiha, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, will participate via video conference.
In her press remarks before the meeting, Kallas said that “We really welcome the Jeddah talks and then the results of it. Now we need to really see that the ball is in Russia's court and what kind of conditions they are presenting, which is [a] big question whether they want peace”.
She was referring to the US – Ukraine talks on 11 March in Saudi Arabia. In those talks, Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the US proposal to enact an “immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by Russia".
The US reacted positively and announced that it will communicate to Russia that “Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace”.
The Trump administration also decided to immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine. Russian President Putin has said that he also welcomed the American initiative but wanted first to know if Ukraine would use the ceasefire to mobilise more troops. He also questioned how the ceasefire would be enforced and supervised.
A high-level EU official commented last Friday that the council will also discuss how the EU will increase its military support to Ukraine during 2025, in particular as regards its immediate defence needs such as artillery ammunition, air defence, repair of previous equipment and training of Ukrainian soldiers.
Kallas has proposed a new package of military aid to Ukraine, potentially amounting to €40 billion. In her press remarks, she said that it had broad political support but that many details still have to be worked out. Further guidance is expected from next European Council.
The EU official described the details as “technical modalities” and expected unity among EU’s member states. Indirectly referring to Hungary’s position, the official added that Ukraine will be able to negotiate from a position of strength the more backing the initiative will receive from EU countries, The initiative is also open for contributions from non-EU countries.
On the Middle East, the Council will focus on the situation in Gaza. There the starting point for the discussion is the statement by Kallas on 9 March about the Arab Plan for the reconstruction of Gaza. The EU welcomed the plan, which the Arab countries designed in response to Trump’s unfeasible “real estate” idea that the US would take over Gaza after the Palestinians had “moved” to other countries.
According to the EU, the Arab plan - which foresees the establishment of a government of technocrats and the mobilization of Arab and international aid (estimated $53 billion) to reconstruct Gaza - represents a serious basis for discussions on the future of the Gaza Strip.
However, the Arab plan is vague about the future role of Hamas. Kallas wrote that the EU is determined that there must be no future role for Hamas in Gaza, and that Hamas will no longer be a threat to Israel.
Currently the most urgent issue is the full implementation of the Israel – Hamas ceasefire and hostage agreement. The Israeli far-right government has until now refused to discuss the second phase, which would lead to the release of the remaining 59 hostages (half of which are still alive) and the permanent end of hostilities. The government threatens to resume the fighting in Gaza.
EU states that any plan for the future of Gaza must provide credible solutions for reconstruction, governance and security. Recovery and reconstruction efforts must be based upon a solid political and security framework acceptable to both Israelis and Palestinians. A resumption of the war will cause more suffering and destruction and upend any plans for reconstruction and a political solution.
The discussion on Iran was postponed at the previous Council meeting. The discussion this time will take place in a “restricted session” and will deal with Iran’s military support to Russia. According to a recent report by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on arms trade, Iran has become the main and almost only exporter of arms to Russia.
Other points on the agenda are Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region (its support to proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen), its arbitrary detention and hostage taking of European citizens, and possible new talks on the revival of the nuclear deal with Iran (The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPoA).
Asked by The Brussels Times on EU’s role in releasing hostages taken by Iran, the EU official replied that the EU is working hard on this and will deploy its full weight to bring about their release. As previously reported, the EU has lacked a unified EU strategy to tackle hostage situations, particularly in cases with dual citizenship.
On Syrian, the High Representative sounded pessimistic after what she described as a massacre by the interim government of Alawite civilians in Syria. ”The violence outbreak is very worrying, and it shows that the hope in Syria is really hanging by a thread. This shows that we need to do more in order to really show that Syria is going [in] the right direction.”
On a positive note, she stressed is that “there is inclusiveness of all the groups that are in Syria”. She mentioned that representatives from the civil sector in Syria will take part in the following conference on Syria and explain what is going on in the country.
The EU has not disclosed the list of invited civil society representatives. According to an EU official, six representatives were invited to the Syria conference, reflecting the diversity of Syrian society, including those outside the country. A Kurdish diplomatic source told The Brussels Times that the group did not include any representative from the Kurdish autonomous region in north-east Syria.
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
