Russia plans to more than double its grain exports next year in a move that would potentially reduce food uncertainty in developing countries and undermine the competitiveness of Ukrainian exports.
According to Viktoria Abramshenko, Russian Deputy Prime Minister, grain imports would rise to 25.5 million tonnes, 14.5 million more than exported this year.
Export quotas set by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture from 15 February to 30 June next year suggest a much higher level of exports following a record Russian grain harvest this year. According to Moscow, the harvest of wheat, corn, and barley will exceed 150 million tonnes this year.
Alongside Ukraine, Russia is one of the largest grain exporters in the world. With the invasion of Ukraine causing significant disruption to grain exports to both countries (both by sanction and war damages) the price of grain and other foodstuffs has increased significantly.
Ripple effects
Developing countries, especially in East Africa, are feeling the brunt of this disruption. Russian and Ukrainian grain is competitively priced and offers a lifeline for developing economies and their growing food needs.
Russia has repeatedly been accused of using food as a weapon against the West. EU Foreign Affairs Chief Josep Borrel warned in June that repeated Russian threats to halt the supply of grain risked creating a new global wave of hunger.
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According to statistics from the World Food Program (WFP), the number of malnourished people has risen from 132 million people before the pandemic to 323 million, partly as a result of the war in Ukraine.
At the end of July, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement to unblock the shipment of grain from Ukrainian ports. In October, Russia threatened to unilaterally pull out of the day, citing baseless claims that the humanitarian naval corridor had been used to attack Russian ships in occupied Crimea.
