Prices for cigarette packets in Belgium could rise by up to €1 as a result of the Federal Government's decision to increase excise taxes on tobacco in its newly announced budget.
Although the "Vivaldi" coalition government has not yet specified the precise impact on cigarette prices of the forecast €50 million in additional tax revenue next year, estimates carried out by La Dernière Heure (DH) suggest that the policy will equate to an average increase of between €0.50 and €1 for a packet of 20 cigarettes. This will bring the total average packet price to between €8.50 and €9.
The forecast price hike means that cigarettes in Belgium will likely become even more expensive relative to neighbours Luxembourg (€5.50) and Germany (€7.60), and could even surpass the Netherlands (€8.20). However, they will remain significantly cheaper compared to France (€10.40).
The recent hike is the fourth consecutive occasion that the Federal Government, led by Alexander De Croo, has increased tobacco prices. When the De Croo government came to power in October 2020, cigarette packets cost just €6.80.
A cloud of controversy
Experts are, however, divided on the extent to which tax hikes on cigarettes represent an effective means of combating smoking.
Despite the aforementioned price increases as well as massive public awareness campaigns and smoking bans, the number of regular smokers in Belgium has dropped just a handful of percentage points over the past two-and-a-half decades, from 25% in 1997 to 19% today.
In addition, there is evidence that repeated tobacco tax hikes, rather than bolstering state coffers, instead encourage consumers to avoid paying taxes altogether.
A study conducted last year by the Belgian-Luxembourg Federation of Cigarette Manufacturers, Cimabel, found that 21.8% of smoked cigarettes had completely evaded the Belgian tax authorities: an increase of 8 percentage points from 2021, equating to approximately €700 million in lost government revenue.
"As long as the Federal Government continues to drastically increase excise duties on tobacco products each year, the demand for cheap cigarettes will continue to grow and criminal organisations will continue their illegal practices on Belgian territory," the federation warned.
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Similarly, Laurence Gilson, an oncologist at the Jules Bordet Institute, a medical research centre, notes that tax increases alone are not enough to prevent smoking – and could even harm the most vulnerable Belgians.
"Following a price increase, there is only a small percentage of smokers who will quit," she told DH. "I also see young people who prefer to deprive themselves of a sandwich from time to time so that they can smoke with their pocket money."
She added that "people who really have financial problems" will likely opt for lower cost options, such as rolling cigarettes themselves or buying illegally imported cigarettes, rather than quitting smoking altogether.
Smoking causes approximately 15,000 premature deaths in Belgium each year. It is also the leading cause of many different kinds of cancers, and the number one cause of lung cancer.
