'At the finish line': Will Belgium finally get a new government this week?

'At the finish line': Will Belgium finally get a new government this week?
The Belgian Federal Parliament in Brussels pictured, December 2024. Credit: Belga

With January ending, formator Bart De Wever's (N-VA) is due back at the Royal Palace on Friday to finalise Belgium's next Federal Government. Will he make it?

Last weekend, the leaders of the five 'Arizona' parties (N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, Les Engagés and MR) did not continue the negotiations for the socioeconomic reforms as outlined in De Wever's "supernote". Bilateral talks with the party leaders took place instead, but De Wever still reiterated his ambition to complete the coalition agreement by 31 January.

"We are at the finish line of this story," he said on Monday, making it clear that Friday's deadline for concluding a coalition agreement is still on the cards. "Everything has been on the table for months, everything has been talked about, and there is not going to be anything extra. It is time to decide."

"On Friday, I will go to the King. I asked for a final extension last time, and everyone agreed it would be the final one," De Wever stressed.

'Minor adjustments'

On Saturday, any hopes of an early breakthrough were dashed this weekend, after it became clear that the Flemish socialist Vooruit party was against any changes to Belgium's wage indexation system. The bill clearly remains a sticking point for Vooruit, especially since the party feels that the capital gains tax in the De Wever's plans is also on the small side.

However, De Wever stressed that most of the proposals have been on the table for seven months, including the "minor adjustments" to the index. He understands that people are struggling with this possible reform, "but I am not going to haggle with the level of ambition of the coalition agreement. There must be enough ambition in savings and reforms, otherwise it does not pay to make a government."

On Monday afternoon, he sat down with negotiators to tackle a series of other, non-socioeconomic thematic sticking points – such as asylum and migration, security and defence – before his "supernote" will be discussed again from Wednesday.

N-VA leader Bart De Wever arrives for a plenary session of the members of a possible coalition for the Federal Government. Credit: Belga/Nicolas Maeterlinck

The aim is still to clear as many sticking points as possible before the final sprint towards an agreement later this week. On Tuesday, the topics on the agenda will be energy, climate, economy, mobility, governance and public health.

However, these non-socioeconomic topics also need quite some work: more than 50 sticking points are reportedly still on the table. Clearing all those hurdles before the supernote comes back on the table on Wednesday will not be possible, but the intention appear to be to slim down the list as much as possible.

The issues that have not been worked out by Tuesday evening will be carried over into the final days of negotiations, when the big decisions will be made. That does mean there is still much to be done by the end of this week.

As of Wednesday, the supernote will also be back on the table. While the content of the note has been discussed in bilateral talks with all party leaders, it has been quite a long time since the text – and the accompanying budget table – have been discussed together with all the presidents.

Enough is enough?

In the meantime, former Deputy Prime Minister Johan Vande Lanotte (Vooruit) urged the negotiators to quickly come to an agreement by Friday morning: either there is an agreement (or all the elements for one are on the table), or they have to conclude that they will not be reaching an agreement.

The negotiations have not lasted "extremely long", especially in light of the challenges ahead, Vande Lanotte said on Flemish radio. "But endlessly dragging out a discussion does not help matters either. At some point, you have to be able to say: ‘enough is enough’. If you do not succeed, then that's the end of the story."

If they fail, Vande Lanotte said they will have to test another formula, but could also try the same coalition again after some time has gone by. But going to the polls again is not an option, he said. "I do not think anyone is waiting for elections. We cannot do that to the people."

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