The EU together with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries launched last week an effort to reinvigorate the peace process in the Middle East at a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
According to their joint press statement, this effort seeks to produce a “Peace Supporting Package” that will maximize peace dividends for the Palestinians and Israelis once they reach a peace agreement. That day is still far away. The idea is to create incentives for Israeli and Palestinians by offering them cooperation and financial aid conditional upon achieving a final status agreement.
The situation on the ground is described as “proving to be untenable and the status quo is becoming impossible to accept, all the more in an international situation plagued with conflicts”. Ignoring the need to revitalize the peace process is neither helpful to the parties nor to the present and future of the Middle East.
The renewed effort is based on the urgent need to preserve the Two-State Solution "ensuring a viable sovereign independent and contiguous Palestinian state based on the 4 June 1967 lines". The statement stresses the need to achieve a solution in accordance with international law, UNSC resolutions, the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative and the 2013 EU peace offer to provide an “unprecedented package of political, security and economic support” to both parties.
“This Peace Day Effort does not aim to provide additional details to the needed bilateral Israeli-Palestinian agreement beyond the internationally agreed parameters, as these details are to be negotiated between the parties.”
This apparently will not happen in the near future. First, working groups on political, economic and human rights issues will be organized. The first assessment will take place in December 2023. The aim is for the Working Groups to conclude their work and to have the “Peace Supporting Package” ready for presentation by September 2024.
Impetus to renew peace talks
“Everything that has been offered in the past is on the table,” Peter Stano, EU’s lead spokesperson for foreign affairs, explained. “The idea is to give a new international impetus to the efforts to renew the peace talks. We’ll try now to work out this as outlined in the joint statement and High Representative Borrell’s press remarks.”
The Palestinian issue is also an important element in the current trilateral talks between the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia on normalisation. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said in his speech in the UN Assembly on Friday that the Palestinians could greatly benefit from a broader peace. “They should be part of the process, but they should not have a veto over the process”.
“When the Palestinians see that most of the Arab world has reconciled itself to the Jewish state, they too will be more likely to abandon the fantasy of destroying Israel and finally embrace a path of genuine peace with it.
He sounded optimistic after having met President Biden for the first time since he formed a far-right government bent on a judicial overhaul with threatens the relations with the US that are build on both shared values and common interests.
“Just as we achieved the Abraham Accords (with United Arab Emirates, Bahrein and Morocco) with the leadership of President Trump, I believe we can achieve peace with Saudi Arabia with the leadership of President Biden. Working together with the leadership of Crown Prince Muhammed Bin Salman, we can shape a future of great blessings for all our peoples.”
He did not mention that the Arab countries that signed the Abraham accords are disappointed that the peace process with the Palestinians has stalled. On the contrary, the tension has escalated and the situation in the occupied territories has become worse. The only thing they achieved on the Palestinian issue was that Netanyahu shelved plans for the annexation of parts of the West Bank.
Closer to Israeli - Saudi deal
Saudi Arabia, on its part, is eager to achieve a defense pact with the US, launch a civilian nuclear programme with American support (including enrichment of uranium) and buy advanced military aircraft from the US. For Biden, it would be a major achievement but for this to happen he needs a two-thirds majority in the Senate.
The Saudi Arabi ruler also sounded optimistic and claimed in an interview that “every day we are getting closer to a deal” with Israel. The Palestinian issue is important but it may be mostly symbolic as he did not specify what Israel needs to do in this regard. His foreign minister talked about a “comprehensive solution” in his speech in the UN Assembly. It may be delayed judging by the Peace Day Effort statement.
Concretely, Netanyahu, did not offer the Palestinians anything in his speech, nor did he announce any confidence building measures. His extremist coalition partners have already voiced their opposition to any concessions to the Palestinians. Without their support, his government will dissolve and there will have to be snap elections which he will probably loose according to the opinion polls.
Normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the most important Arab and Muslim state in the region, will amount to a dramatic geopolitical shift in the Middle East and boost economic cooperation and prosperity. Israeli Ambassador Michael Harari, former head of the International Division in the Foreign Ministry’s Center for Political Research, was cautiously optimistic.
“The Saudis aren't going to give up on their demands but I’m not sure that the Israeli government is unable to reach a deal with them,” he told The Brussels Times. “The most important thing is to keep the two-state solution alive.” But he admitted that, basically, it is a matter of confidence in Netanyahu, which he does not enjoy. Israel is in the middle of a constitutional crisis which does not make it a very stable actor.
Mass demonstrations continue
The Israeli Supreme Court convened recently to hear appeals against the government’s amendment of a "basic law" which abolished the court’s right to apply the reasonableness criterion against arbitrary decisions, without a legal basis, taken by the government and ministers. Israel lacks a written constitution and the labelling of certain laws as "basic" is in itself arbitrary as they do not differ much from ordinary laws.
If the court strikes down the amendment, as is expected, it will be the first time it has struck down a basic law. If the government refuses to comply with such a ruling, as it might do, it will be the first time it has disobeyed the court. Netanyahu himself has not committed to obey by the court ruling. A speedy ruling striking down the amendment would have forced his hand but it will take some months until a ruling will be announced.
Netanyahu is as eager as Ibn Salman to normalise the relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In the meantime, the mass demonstrations in Israel against the judicial overhaul are continuing for the 38th week in a row. “We are defending the very existence of Israel against the government,” said Eyal Ben Reuven, a retired major general, at a demonstration on Saturday evening at Karkur Junction in central Israel.
The demonstrators will not relent until they have stopped the judicial overhaul. It undermines not only Israel’s liberal democracy and the system of checks and balances. It also empowers the extremist parties to derail the peace process. The opposition could need US President Biden - who mentioned the shared democratic values at his meeting with Netanyahu - to force him to put the judicial overhaul on ice or engage in sincere cross-party talks on a broad consensus solution.
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
