Belgium is set to move forward with its commitment to the F-35 programme, with the new Arizona government indicating that it intends to power forward with the acquisition of the expensive and controversial stealth supersonic fighter jets.
The decision to acquire the American-made fighter jets was first made by the Charles Michel’s government in 2018 to replace Belgium’s ageing F-16 fighters. Belgium currently possesses 45 F-16 fighter jets, of which Belgium has already committed 30 of the older fighter jets to Ukraine from 2026. Belgium therefore has an acute need to accelerate its transition to the newer F-35 platform.
The initial purchase agreement aims to acquire 34 F-35 aircraft, designed by Lockheed Martin, at an estimated total cost of around €3.6 billion. In 2018, then-Minister of Economy Kris Peeters had promised that Belgium’s purchase of the jets would pay for itself in contracts awarded for their maintenance to Belgian aerospace companies.
Ultimately, this gamble did not pay off, with companies pulling in just €700 million by mid-2022, not even 20% of the sticker price. An agreement signed last year promises that the F-35 programme will generate €66 million in economic returns per year, or €2.7 billion over a 40-year-period, still far the cost invested into the fighter jets.
Turbulent deal
Credit: Belga/ Lockheed Martin Corporation
Concerns have long abounded about the efficiency of the fighter platform. Since 2018, there have been 15 accidents involving the F-35, as well as numerous complaints by users about their reliability and elevated cost. In August 2023, Belgium refused receipt of two F-35 jets due to technical inadequacies in the fighter jet’s software and heads-up displays.
Despite this, General Frederik Vansina, Belgium’s top defence official, told La Libre Belgique in February that the fighter jets, despite their issues, would be an expedient purchase for the Air Component of the Belgian Armed Forces.
"The F-35 is the best fighter plane in the world. This has just been proven again by the Israelis during their operations over Iran. And all the lessons we are learning today from Ukraine clearly tell us that the only aircraft that will survive on the modern battlefield is a stealth aircraft," the general said.
Other European countries have backed out from the F-35 programme in the context of the growing argument about European defence independence from the United States. While the notion of a physical “kill switch” has been rejected, German officials are concerned that the American jets could be remotely disabled in the event of disagreements with their U.S. partners by blocking access to key software used for their operation.
The operation of the F-35 relies heavily on the United States for an array of services for maintenance, operational support, intelligence, navigation data, ordinance trajectory and mission preparation, all of which could potentially be halted in the event of a Trumpist freeze in relations between the U.S. and Europe.
Whether these factors could ground the jets, however, is yet to be seen. Both Belgium’s Ministry of Defence and Defence assure that this is not a technical or political possibility. “There is no button in the White House that would allow the United States to render our F-35s unusable. It’s an urban legend,” Defence Minister Theo Francken told VRT on 10 March. The Ministry of Defence equally noted that the jets could be used in a “sovereign manner.”
Belgium pushes on ahead
Credit: Belga/ Lockheed Martin Corporation
With the controversy and swirling costs, is it too late for Belgium to pull out of the costly F-35 programme? Former Belgian Defence Minister Ludivine Dedonder seems to think so, noting that the programme was now in an “advanced stage, where there is no going back.” This has not stopped other parties from getting cold feet faced with the next generation of American-made fighter jets.
On 14 March, Portugal walked back on plans to acquire the jets over fears that the US would leverage its influence over their use, placing economic limitations on access to components and crucial software. The nation will now look towards European suppliers to meet its military needs.
There is no indication that Belgium intends to follow suit, especially given the considerable funds already spent on the project. In fact, dependence on US military equipment seems only to be growing.
Belgium has already received delivery of the first eight jets which are currently stationed in the US for training Belgian pilots and maintenance crews. By the autumn, the first jets should be transferred to Belgian soil, where they will be used to protect NATO’s eastern flank.
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The Belgian Armed Forces are eager to highlight that the project is more than a simple defence order, but rather an interoperability programme with its NATO partners.
General Vansina noted that the F-35 programme had several benefits such as a "global spares pool", allowing individual operators to share parts and maintain the jets no matter the changes in the geopolitical layout of Europe. Even without a US-backed system of support, it is estimated that jets could still operate independently for around a month.
Current Defence Minister Theo Francken (N-VA) announced on 15 February his intentions for Belgium to purchase additional F-35 jets beyond the initial order as part of Belgium’s bid to boost defence spending beyond the originally planned 2% of GDP by 2029. "We do not have the capacity to choose anything other than F-35s," he believes.
