On election day Germany will not only decide its own future but also partly determine the course Europe will take in the coming years.
As the EU’s economic powerhouse and a pillar of political stability, Germany bears a responsibility that extends far beyond its borders. This election result is of particular importance for Belgium, especially for the eastern part of the country. However, from a European perspective, much is at stake as well.
Germany’s election as a directional choice for Europe
In times of increasing geopolitical uncertainty – whether due to the war in Ukraine, tensions between China and the USA, or the growing challenges posed by migration – Germany has a special role to play. The new Federal Government will decide how the country positions itself within the EU: more cooperation or a stronger focus on national interests?
Particularly controversial is the debate on stricter migration policies. Even calls for permanent, stationary border controls seem to be on the table. If Germany were to take this path, it would have massive implications for its neighbouring countries—not least for Belgium.
Furthermore, there are signs of a political shift to the right, which affects not only Germany but all of Europe. If the trend of rising success for right-wing populist and nationalist parties, evident in several EU countries, continues in Germany, it could have far-reaching consequences for European integration and social cohesion.
Belgium and Germany: An economic community of fate
Belgium is economically closely intertwined with Germany. Germany is Belgium’s most important trading partner, with bilateral trade volume exceeding €115 billion in 2023. Smooth exports across open borders are essential for companies relying on just-in-time production – especially in the automotive, chemical, and logistics industries.
Belgian ports such as Antwerp and Zeebrugge play a crucial role in European trade. Many overseas goods reach Germany via these hubs. If stationary border controls were introduced, delays and rising costs would disrupt the entire supply chain. This would not align with European law and would set our border regions back 40 years.
This year, we celebrate 40 years of the Schengen Agreement. Schengen must not only be praised in Sunday speeches; it must be lived in everyday life.
A more restrictive border policy would have serious consequences not only for trade but also for workers. Thousands of Belgians commute to Germany, whether to Aachen, Cologne, or the Rhineland. Long waiting times at the borders would not only cost time and money but also impact economic dynamism in border regions.
East Belgium: Particularly affected by border closures
In East Belgium, close ties with the neighbouring country are part of daily life – both economically and culturally. Many East Belgians work in Germany or run cross-border businesses. Friendships and partnerships extend beyond national borders, and sports and cultural events are enjoyed mutually. A disruption of this exchange would hit the region hard, as we painfully learned during the border closures of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Additionally, East Belgium shares a special historical connection with Germany. The open border symbolizes the overcoming of past tensions and stands for a united Europe.
The European Dimension: A threat to the internal market and EU unity
Germany is not only the economic but also the political heart of Europe. If the new Federal Government were to adopt a more isolationist policy, it could trigger a chain reaction.
Moreover, the European internal market depends on the free movement of goods. Every day that trucks are stuck at the border costs businesses millions. As Europe’s largest economy, Germany has a special responsibility to ensure this market functions smoothly.
A rightward shift in Germany could complicate European cooperation.
The federal election in our neighbouring country is far more than a national decision. It is a directional choice for Europe. For East Belgium, for Belgium, and for the entire EU – much is at stake.
A strong, open, and pro-European new German government is in the interest of all who believe in the success of the European project. Hopefully, Germany will be aware of this responsibility when casting votes on election day.
Oliver Paasch is Minister-President of the German-speaking Community of Belgium, a position he has held since 2014.
