The EU-US relations took an ominous turn on Monday evening with the Trump administration announcing that it will pause military aid to Ukraine claiming that President Zelensky does not demonstrate “a good faith commitment to peace” as if anyone wants peace more than Ukraine.
The announcement plays into the hands of Kremlin before any peace talks have started and runs against EU policy to enable Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength. The Trump administration has already made it clear that it neither will provide security guarantees to Ukraine in the context of a peace settlement nor offer Ukraine NATO-membership.
At yesterday’s daily press conference, a European Commission spokesperson declined to comment on the American decision. “It’s not for us to comment on the decisions on the other side of the Atlantic,” he said, and focused instead on the EU support to Ukraine and Commission President von der Leyen’s letter to the EU Member States ahead of Thursday's European Council.
In her press statement on Tuesday morning, she announced a defence package (ReArmEurope) that could mobilise close to €800 billion for 800 billion “for a safe and resilient Europe”.
The main part of the package is to allow Member States to increase significantly their defence expenditures without triggering the Excessive Deficit Procedure. If for example Member States would increase their defence spending by 1,5% of GDP on average this could create fiscal space of close to EUR 650 billion over a period of four years.
The second proposal will be a new instrument that will provide € 150 billion of loans to Member States for defence investment.
“The real question in front of us is whether Europe is prepared to act as decisively as the situation dictates,” she said. “And whether Europe is ready and able to act with the speed and the ambition that is needed.”
The US still EU ally
According to the spokesperson, the EU still considers the US a longstanding ally and partner. The EU wants to show the Trump administration that it will shoulder its responsibility for Europe’s defence by increasing the share of defence spending of GDP which overall is below the target of 2 %.
The latest development follows the disastrous meeting on Friday in the Oval Office in Washington where Trump and his Vice-President JD Vance in an unprecedented scene in front of the press jointly humiliated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
What preceded the terrible scene and what exactly led to the chaos in the Oval Office is still unclear. It surely did not help that an outspoken Zelensky had to confront the American hosts by himself, abandoned by the EU that has been sidelined by the Trump administration.
Maybe this was to be expected from an administration which acts as if it is above the rule of law and is undermining the traditional separation of powers between the legislative, executive and judicial branches in the US. Until now this separation was seen as a model for other democracies and a guarantee that an elected president will not become a king who enjoys unlimited executive power.
Both UK prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron visited the White House last week and conveyed about the same message to Trump as Zelensky did without incurring his wrath. Zelensky had to leave the White House without signing the minerals deal imposed on him by the US. He came to sign it but maybe the US changed the conditions in the last minute.
Follow-up of London Summit
Zelensky was warmly welcomed at the following London summit on Sunday where leaders from UK, EU Member States, Canada and Turkey were united in their support for a just and lasting peace settlement with security guarantees. Commission President von der Leyen twitted her thanks to Starmer for hosting the meeting and conveyed two key messages:
“First, we need a lasting peace in Ukraine. But it can only be achieved through strength. We need a massive surge in European Defence. At Thursday’s European Council, I will present a plan to rearm Europe to our Member States. Lasting security is built on strength.”
However, not all EU Member States are yet willing to contribute to the deployment of troops to Ukraine to deter Russia to violate a possible peace settlement. Two Member States, Hungaria and Slovakia, might veto EU security guarantees. The leaders of two major Member States, Italy and Poland, both expressed strong support for Ukraine but said that their countries will not contribute to the EU force.
At the Commission’s press conference on Monday, its chief spokesperson Paula Pinho said that the EU will try to gather as much support as possible for the ReArmEurope plan.
“The point of departure is to put forward a proposal that can be accepted by all Member States,” she said. “It’s important for the EU that is can show the Trump administration that it will increase its defense spending and shoulder the responsibility for Europe’s security.
While Starmer and Macron, possible with other leaders, have hinted that they might meet Trump again to try to resolve the crisis in the transatlantic partnership after the incident in the Oval Office, it is not clear if von der Leyen will join them. When asked by The Brussels Times, the spokesperson replied that there are no concrete plans for such a joint mission but she did not exclude that it could take place.
More EU troops needed
In the absence of American security guarantees for Ukraine, the idea of an American “backstop” for EU security guarantees has been floated. One issue which has been raised is whether the NATO collective defense clause will apply if troops from EU Member States that are NATO members would be attacked in case they would be deployed in Ukraine.
To deter Russia from violating a ceasefire followed by a peace settlement, Ukraine would need the support of a European peace keeping force of well above 100,000 troops, according to media reports. For the time being, the EU is unable to provide so many troops and would also need American military assistance for their deployment and air defence.
“There will be no European troops on Ukrainian soil in the coming weeks,” Macron said after the London summit. He stressed the need to use the time to negotiate a ceasefire. “We want peace, but not at any price, without guarantees.”
At the London summit, the British Prime Minister announced a new £1.6 billion export finance contract for Ukraine allowing it to buy more than 5,000 air defence missiles. The arrangement will also stimulate the UK economy and support 700 existing jobs at a manufacturing plant in Belfast.
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
