The rapid collapse of the Bashar Assad regime caught everyone by surprise. The swift disintegration of the Syrian military did not leave Syria’s allies, Iran and Russia, sufficient time to intervene effectively on Assad’s behalf even if they would have had resources to do it.
Subsequently, the dramatic turn of events in Damascus greatly reduced Iran’s regional influence after decades in which it had been allied with the Assad dynasty. The loss of Syria has negatively affected Iran in several ways. It cut off Tehran’s territorial passage to Lebanon, controlled by its main proxy, Hezbollah, a Shi’ite terrorist organisation. This now hinders Iran’s attempts to rebuild Hezbollah’s military capabilities, which were heavily degraded by Israel.
Iran also lost one of its avenues for subverting Jordan, which borders Syria. Since Russia and Iran, members of the anti-Western alignment, are the immediate losers in the still evolving situation, the developments in the country are a welcome outcome for the United States and Europe.
Israel has once again demonstrated that it is a valuable ally. Its air force has left Iran’s skies defenseless. It has dismantled Hamas and dealt a heavy blow to Hezbollah, both of which are Iranian proxies. The indirect results triggered revolutionary change in Syria and subsequently the decline of the Iranian-led bloc, the “ring of fire”. This is good news for the West and moderate Arab states in the Middle East.
Preventing Iran from becoming nuclear
The West is committed to not allow Iran acquire nuclear weapons. Preventing nuclearization of Iran is more urgent than before the fall of the Assad regime, because Iran, already a nuclear threshold state, has “dramatically accelerated uranium enrichment” according to a recent International Atomic Energy Agency report
Iran may decide to speed its nuclear efforts to compensate for its current weakness and enhance its deterrent power since its proxies have been rendered less relevant. At stake is the nuclearization of the Middle East and the potential collapse of the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if Iran goes nuclear.
As regards to Lebanon, it may now be able to free itself from Hezbollah’s yoke, although its political leaders have not displayed great courage in the past. The country’s sectarian political system is suffering from a prolonged political paralysis that has led it to an economic abyss and widespread corruption.
Yet, the demise of the Assad regime will not necessarily turn Syria, nor indeed the Middle East as a whole, into a better place. In Damascus, the tyranny of the Assad dynasty has been substituted by an Islamist militia, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which until now has shown little interest in democracy and human rights.
In the past it was linked to Al Qaeda, and it is still designated a terrorist organization by the UN, the US and even the EU. There are therefore serious concerns about the future of minorities in Syria such as the Kurds, Druze, Alawites, and Christians. The hopes for a political evolution and a transition toward a more benign and inclusive political system are understandable but probably nothing more than wishful thinking.
The worst outcome for the Syrian people is the chaos that may ensue following Assad’s departure. The ability of the rebels to build a stable polity instead of a fragmented state ruled by different militias is not self-evident. The political culture of other Muslim countries where the regimes have been overthrown - Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, and Libya - points toward a gloomy political trajectory.
Turkey’s interference in Syria
The events in Syria herald the ascendance of Turkey in the region. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey has supported the Sunni extremist presence in Syria. It also occupied a long strip of land along and south of the Syrian Turkish border on the pretext of fighting against Kurdish terrorism. In fact, Turkey wants to undo the Autonomous Kurdish Administration in north-east Syria (AANES).
The Kurdish administration has established a functioning local self-government and its militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces including both Kurds and Arabs, fought successfully the Islamic State (IS) in partnership with US forces. In the war, thousands of Kurdish soldiers were killed.
While formally a part of NATO, Turkey conducts a foreign policy that is often at odds with Western preferences. Turkey applied for membership in BRICS, an anti-Western bloc. Erdogan helped Iran circumvent Western economic sanctions. He is a friend of Qatar, the main patron of the Muslim Brotherhood, and he also backed Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the West.
The possibility of having a Turkish-backed Islamist state on its northern border is a source of concern for Jerusalem. The weakening of Iran, a historic rival of the Ottomans, inevitably feeds Turkish ambitions and adventurism. Turkish troops are already deployed in Iraq, Syria, Qatar, Djibouti, and Libya. Erdogan entertains dreams of Ottoman imperial grandeur.
Fifteen months after the failure to foresee and prevent Hamas’ murderous terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, Israel is now in a much better position. The defeat of its enemies is clear and the unintended consequence of its actions – the fall of the Assad regime – changes the regional balance of power. Israel has restored its deterrence. Friends and foes alike will treat Israel accordingly.
Indeed, Israel has destroyed most of Syria’s military strategic arsenal and capabilities, after they were abandoned by Assad’s army, to prevent them from falling in the wrong hands. It has also improved its defensive posture during the evolving and uncertain situation in the Syria.
Israel has an interest in strengthening relations with local actors such as the Kurds and Druze in Syria that are worried about their future. Maybe even the Alawites could become partners. After the Shiites suffered a defeat, the ethnic and religious divisions in Lebanon could provide an opportunity for change toward an equitable power-sharing arrangement. In any case, political engineering beyond Israel’s borders should be avoided judging from failed attempts in the past.
Recent developments also provide an opportunity to strengthen and expand the Abraham Peace Accords. In the most optimistic scenario, despite its Islamist agenda the new regime in Syria might be encouraged to sign the peace agreement which the Assads, father and son, rejected.
The incoming Trump administration will find this more than welcome; a strong Israel, apprehensions about Iran, and a supportive America were the elements that led to the accords. Unfortunately, Israel has obtained its new position only after enduring a costly and devastating war in Gaza initiated by Hamas and Hezbollah. Waging war once in a while is probably Israel’s destiny until the Middle East is transformed into a peaceful neighborhood.
